{"id":5761,"date":"2010-07-16T22:54:47","date_gmt":"2010-07-16T14:54:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw\/wordpress\/?p=5761"},"modified":"2021-10-06T16:32:36","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T08:32:36","slug":"%e5%88%b0%e5%ba%95%e9%82%84%e6%9c%89%e5%a4%9a%e5%b0%91%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%ef%bc%88%ef%bd%90etroleum-%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/localhost\/%e5%88%b0%e5%ba%95%e9%82%84%e6%9c%89%e5%a4%9a%e5%b0%91%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%ef%bc%88%ef%bd%90etroleum-%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5230\u5e95\u9084\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u77f3\u6cb9\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5230\u5e95\u9084\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u77f3\u6cb9\uff08Petroleum \uff09\uff1f<\/span>
\n\u77e5\u8b58\u901a\u8a0a\u8a55\u8ad6\u7b2c52\u671f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a>

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\u5c0d\u7acb
\n<\/strong>\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u662f\u5426\u5c07\u8017\u76e1\uff0c\u5c0d\u7acb\u7684\u96d9\u65b9\u90fd\u5b78\u6709\u5c08\u9577\uff0c\u4e14\u5b9a\u6642\u767c\u8868\u5404\u6709\u6839\u64da\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u5df2\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u666e\u6797\u65af\u9813\u5730\u8cea\u5b78\u5bb6\u8fea\u8cbb\u65af\u8d0a\u6210\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\u7406\u8ad6\uff08Peak-oil Theory\uff09\uff0c\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u7070\u8272\u5730\u5e36\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5df2\u9054\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u6642\u9593\u6709\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\u4e5f\u5373\u5c07\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u610f\u601d\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u8aaaCERA\u8a8d\u70ba\u77f3\u6cb9\u7528\u4e0d\u5b8c\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5730\u8cea\u8cc7\u8cc7\u6e90\u8017\u4e0d\u76e1\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5fb7\u5dde\u77f3\u6cb9\u5927\u738b\u7562\u80af\u65af\uff08T. Boone Pickens\uff09\u66fe\u7a31\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u5df2\u5230\u9054\u9802\u9ede\uff1b\u53bb\u5e74\u5341\u6708\u6bbc\u724c\u77f3\u6cb9\u7e3d\u88c1\u8cc0\u6885\u65af\u7279\uff08John Hofmeister\uff09\u5728\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u8a18\u8005\u4ff1\u6a02\u90e8\u6f14\u8aaa\u6642\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u80fd\u9ad4\u6703\u300c\u5bb9\u6613\u5230\u624b\u7684\u539f\u6599\u5df2\u5feb\u7528\u7f44\u300d\u3002\u300c\u9ad8\u9ede\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u5230\u4f86\u53ef\u4ee5\u722d\u8ad6\uff0c\u4f46\u6539\u4e0d\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u722d\u8ad6\u7d42\u5c07\u4f86\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002\u300d\u6ce2\u58eb\u9813\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8003\u592b\u66fc\uff08Robert Kaufmann\uff09\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6211\u5011\u662f\u5426\u54c8\u6ce2\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08Hubbertists\uff09\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u77f3\u6cb9\u7e3d\u6709\u7528\u5b8c\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u54c8\u6ce2\uff08M. King Hubbert\uff09\u662f\u9996\u4f4d\u9810\u6e2c\u77f3\u6cb9\u751f\u7522\u6703\u5feb\u901f\u9054\u5230\u9ad8\u9ede\u7684\u5730\u8cea\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u7576\u7522\u91cf\u4e00\u89f8\u53ca\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e94\u516d\u5e74\u5728\u4f11\u58eb\u9813\u6bbc\u724c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4efb\u8077\u7684\u54c8\u6ce2\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u571f\u56db\u5341\u516b\u5dde\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u5c07\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e03\u25cb\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u5230\u9054\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u4ed6\u7b97\u51fa\u7522\u91cf\u662f\u4ee5\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u9418\u5f62\u66f2\u7dda\u5448\u73fe\uff0c\u66f2\u7dda\u4e00\u908a\u662f\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u5247\u662f\u9661\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u56e0\u8457\u4f5c\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u76c6\u5730\u5c71\u5dba\u300d\u800c\u805e\u540d\u7684\u8fea\u8cbb\uff08Deffeyes\uff09\u5341\u5206\u4fe1\u670d\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u54c8\u6ce2\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e5f\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u6574\u500b\u5730\u7403\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u6210\u70ba\u54c8\u6ce2\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6210\u54e1\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u300c\u54c8\u6ce2\u9ad8\u9ede\uff1a\u5373\u5c07\u767c\u751f\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u77ed\u7f3a\uff08Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending Oil Shortage\uff09\u300d\u53ca\u300c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4e4b\u5916\uff1a\u54c8\u6ce2\u9ad8\u9ede\u9762\u9762\u89c0\uff08Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert’s Peak\uff09\u300d\u5169\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u7b97\u51fa\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\u8207\u7522\u51fa\uff0c\u8072\u7a31\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u7684\u9ad8\u9ede\u5c07\u65bc\u4e8c\u25cb\u25cb\u4e94\u5e74\u5341\u4e00\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u56db\u65e5\u90a3\u5929\u4f86\u5230\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u53c8\u5c07\u65e5\u671f\u7565\u70ba\u5ef6\u5f8c\u5230\u540c\u5e74\u5341\u4e8c\u6708\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u4e0d\u662f\u5ba3\u7a31\u52dd\u5229\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\u300d\u4f46\u662f\u8fea\u8cbb\u5728\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5f8c\u53ea\u5f97\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e4b\u5167\uff0c\u6703\u8b49\u660e\u6211\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

\u54c8\u6ce2\u5728\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e94\u516d\u5e74\u9810\u6e2c\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u571f\u56db\u5341\u516b\u5dde\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u5c07\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e03\u25cb\u5e74\u5230\u9054\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u800c\u6210\u70ba\u722d\u8b70\u6027\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u90a3\u5e74\u53ca\u5f80\u5f8c\u6578\u5e74\u5be6\u969b\u7522\u91cf\u8981\u9ad8\u65bc\u4ed6\u7684\u9810\u8b66\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n

\u8207\u6642\u9077\u79fb<\/strong>
\n\u8fea\u8cbb\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u4e26\u975e\u4eba\u4eba\u8a8d\u540c\uff0c\u5091\u514b\u68ee\uff08Peter Jackson\uff09\u5728CERA\u80cc\u666f\u7c21\u5831\u6642\uff0c\u767c\u8868\u300c\u70ba\u4f55\u9ad8\u9ede\u7406\u8ad6\u5931\u6557\u4e86\u300d\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u54c8\u6ce2\u5728\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e94\u25cb\u5e74\u4ee3\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u4e8c\u25cb\u25cb\u516d\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u614b\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5091\u514b\u68ee\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9ad8\u9ede\u7406\u8ad6\u8005\u4e00\u518d\u66f4\u6539\u9ad8\u9ede\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u9ad8\u9ede\u7406\u8ad6\u5c08\u5bb6\u5eb7\u57f9\u723e\uff08Colin Campbell\uff09\u4e5f\u5c07\u78b3\u6c2b\u5316\u5408\u7269\u7684\u751f\u7522\u9ad8\u9ede\u7531\u4e8c\u25cb\u25cb\u25cb\u5e74\u5f80\u5f8c\u5ef6\u5230\u4e8c\u25cb\u4e00\u25cb\u5e74\uff1b\u53e6\u9084\u6709\u4e9b\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u5c07\u66b4\u8dcc\u7684\u63a8\u6e2c\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b78\u5730\u8cea\u5b78\u5c08\u5bb6\u7d10\u4f2f\u5229\uff08John Strong Newberry\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\u7f8e\u570b\u77f3\u6cb9\u5373\u5c07\u56de\u5fa9\u5230\u4e00\u516b\u4e03\u4e94\u5e74\u7684\u7522\u91cf\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u8001\u6389\u7259\u7684\u63a8\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n

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CERA\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u5728\u65bc\u5c0d\u65b0\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u958b\u63a1\u6280\u8853\u6301\u6a02\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5091\u514b\u68ee\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u5132\u5b58\u91cf\u7d93\u5e38\u6703\u56e0\u6642\u9593\u800c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u963f\u62c9\u65af\u52a0\u5317\u5761\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4f30\u8a08\u662f\u4e5d\u5341\u516d\u5104\u6876\uff0c\u800c\u73fe\u5728\u8a8d\u70ba\u6709\u4e00\u4e09\u4e03\u5104\u6876\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u77f3\u6cb9\u51fa\u73fe\u8b66\u8a0a\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u65b0\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u8207\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\u76f8\u62b5\u3002\u300d\u5091\u514b\u68ee\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8a31\u591a\u6cb9\u7530\u90fd\u4e0d\u65b7\u63d0\u5347\u5b58\u91cf\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u9ad8\u9ede\u7406\u8ad6\u652f\u6301\u8005\u537b\u7d55\u53e3\u4e0d\u63d0\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\u6700\u521d\u88ab\u5730\u8cea\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u5f8c\uff0c\u6703\u56e0\u958b\u63a1\u6280\u8853\u53ca\u958b\u63a1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6295\u5165\u614b\u5ea6\u800c\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u5f8c\u4f86\u88ab\u627e\u51fa\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\uff0c\u61c9\u88ab\u8a08\u7b97\u70ba\u5b58\u91cf\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5927\u7d04\u5df2\u6709\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u5341\u4e94\u7684\u6cb9\u91cf\u88ab\u958b\u63a1\uff0c\u800c\u6240\u6709\u6cb9\u7530\u958b\u63a1\u90fd\u9032\u884c\u4e09\u90e8\u66f2\uff1a\u947f\u4e95\u53d6\u6cb9\uff0c\u5148\u62bd\u53d6\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u5230\u624b\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5230\u51fa\u6cb9\u91cf\u6f38\u6e1b\u6642\uff0c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u5c31\u7528\u6ce8\u5165\u6c34\u6216\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u505a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u968e\u6bb5\u8403\u53d6\uff0c\u518d\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u9ad8\u6eab\u84b8\u6c23\u7a00\u91cb\u6cd5\u69a8\u53d6\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u77f3\u6cb9\uff0c\u63a1\u6cb9\u4e00\u76f4\u63a1\u5230\u4e0d\u7b26\u7d93\u6fdf\u50f9\u503c\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u6cb9\u7530\u5c31\u88ab\u68c4\u7f6e\u3002\u300c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5728\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u5e74\u5f8c\u4ecd\u7136\u6703\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u300d\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5730\u8cea\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f11\u65af\uff08David Hughes\uff09\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u53ea\u5728\u5408\u4e0d\u5408\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u76ca\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u7d93\u904e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u968e\u6bb5\u8403\u53d6\u5f8c\u800c\u5c01\u5b58\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u6703\u56e0\u6cb9\u50f9\u6ce2\u52d5\u800c\u91cd\u555f\uff0c\u505a\u7b2c\u4e09\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u8403\u53d6\uff0c\u4ee5\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u7d04\u6bcf\u6876\u516d\u25cb\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6cb9\u50f9\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u91cd\u555f\u820a\u6cb9\u7530\u6216\u6295\u8cc7\u65bc\u627e\u5c0b\u65b0\u6cb9\u6e90\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\uff0c\u53cd\u5c0d\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u54c8\u6ce2\u66f2\u7dda\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u958b\u63a1\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u50f9\u683c\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u539f\u4f86\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u958b\u63a1\u7684\u6cb9\u6e90\u6210\u70ba\u65b0\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5091\u514b\u68ee\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u8981\u6cb9\u7530\u5927\u90fd\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u8403\u53d6\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u61c9\u53ef\u88dc\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\u7f3a\u53e3\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u5730\u8cea\u6e2c\u91cf\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u4e8c\u25cb\u25cb\u25cb\u5e74\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5be6\u969b\u5b58\u91cf\u5927\u7d04\u6bd4\u5148\u524d\u7684\u9808\u6e2c\u591a\u4e00\u5146\u6876\uff0c\u4e5f\u9810\u6e2c\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\u5728\u4e8c\u25cb\u4e09\u25cb\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u4e0d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u9ad8\u5c45\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5927\u7d04\u6709\u4e94\u767e\u4ef6\u77f3\u6cb9\u958b\u767c\u6848\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u4e4b\u5167\u555f\u52d5\uff0c\u958b\u767c\u6848\u7684\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u5927\u6848\u6bcf\u65e5\u53ef\u751f\u7522\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u6876\uff0c\u5c0f\u7684\u6bcf\u5929\u4e00\u842c\u6876\u7522\u91cf\u4e5f\u5217\u5165\u958b\u767c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6df1\u8015<\/strong>
\n\u80fd\u6e90\u6a02\u89c0\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7063\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u4e03\u8655\u6df1\u6d77\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u5168\u9760\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u70c8\u99ac\uff08Thunder Horse\uff09\u6cb9\u7530\u860a\u85cf\u91cf\u4f30\u8a08\u70ba\u4e09\u5104\u6876\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u767c\u73fe\u4e5f\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u901a\u904e\u958b\u767c\u904e\u53bb\u88ab\u5217\u70ba\u7981\u5340\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7063\uff0c\u5091\u514b\u68ee\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0d\u64d4\u5fc3\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9084\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u7684\u6cb9\u7522\u6703\u52a0\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n

\u54c8\u6ce2\u7406\u8ad6\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u91dd\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u571f\u53d6\u6a23\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u9810\u6e2c\u9ad8\u9ede\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5c1a\u7a31\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u7522\u91cf\u9810\u6e2c\u503c\u537b\u6bd4\u5be6\u969b\u5c11\u4e86\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u5341\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7063\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u7522\u91cf\u9060\u8d85\u904e\u54c8\u6ce2\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u73fe\u8c61\u4e26\u672a\u8aaa\u670d\u77f3\u6cb9\u9ad8\u9ede\u8ad6\u8005\uff0cPFC\u80fd\u6e90\u8aee\u8a62\u516c\u53f8\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u7f85\u5091\u65af\uff08Michael Rodgers\uff09\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u554f\u984c\u51fa\u5728\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u627e\u5c0b\u6cb9\u6e90\u7684\u4eba\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u53e6\u5916\u4e09\u5146\u6876\u77f3\u6cb9\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u8a72\u4fe1\u8ab0\uff1f
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\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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