{"id":30224,"date":"2011-07-11T11:56:30","date_gmt":"2011-07-11T03:56:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw\/wordpress\/?p=30224"},"modified":"2021-10-06T16:26:03","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T08:26:03","slug":"%e5%a4%aa%e9%99%bd%e6%b4%bb%e5%8b%95%ef%bc%88solar-variation%ef%bc%89%e8%88%87%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%9a%96%e5%8c%96%ef%bc%88global-warming%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%882%ef%bc%89%e2%94%80%e5%a4%aa%e9%99%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/localhost\/%e5%a4%aa%e9%99%bd%e6%b4%bb%e5%8b%95%ef%bc%88solar-variation%ef%bc%89%e8%88%87%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%9a%96%e5%8c%96%ef%bc%88global-warming%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%882%ef%bc%89%e2%94%80%e5%a4%aa%e9%99%bd\/","title":{"rendered":"\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\uff08Solar variation\uff09\u8207\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\uff08global warming\uff09\uff082\uff09\u2500\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u9032\u5165\u51ac\u7720\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\uff08Solar variation\uff09\u8207\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\uff08global warming\uff09\uff082\uff09\u2500\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u9032\u5165\u51ac\u7720\u671f
\n<\/span>\u7f8e\u570bStony Brook University\u738b\u745c\u541b\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\/\u7f8e\u570bStony Brook University\u738b\u745c\u541b\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u601d\u8003\u554f\u984c\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1. \u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u7d00\u9304\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u73fe\u54ea\u4e9b\u5947\u7279\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

2. \u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u964d\u4f4e\u6703\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u9020\u6210\u54ea\u4e9b\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u592a\u967d\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\u5230\u5e95\u5c0d\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u6709\u4e9b\u8cea\u7591\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e39\u9ea5\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6Henrik Svensmark\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u6bd4\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u6392\u653e\u4f86\u5f97\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9019\u7a2e\u770b\u6cd5\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u70ba\u56e0\u7d20\u9020\u6210\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u76ee\u524d\u5404\u7a2e\u7bc0\u80fd\u6e1b\u78b3\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5f92\u52de\u7121\u529f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u9593\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u5c08\u9580\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08IPCC\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u5c08\u5bb6\u610f\u898b\u3002\u5728IPCC\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u8a55\u4f30\uff082001\uff09\u548c\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u8a55\u4f30\uff082007\uff09\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u90fd\u8a8d\u70ba\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u96e3\u6709\u5b9a\u8ad6\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6548\u679c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u986f\u8457\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u722d\u8faf\u5c1a\u7121\u5b9a\u8ad6\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u6578\u64da\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u6b63\u53cd\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u610f\u898b\u5c31\u8981\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u6aa2\u8996\u4e00\u756a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u9081\u9032\u505c\u7de9\u671f
\n<\/span><\/strong>2006\u5e74\u6642NASA\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u592a\u967d\u9ed1\u5b50\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u51fa\u73fe\u57282011\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u500b\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u9084\u662f\u504f\u4f4e \uff08\u57161\uff09\u30022011\u5e746\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5929\u6587\u5b78\u6703\uff08American Astronomical Society (AAS) \uff09\u53ec\u958b\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u7d44\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5206\u5225\u63d0\u51fa\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u8b49\u5be6\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u78ba\u9081\u5165\u4e86\u51ac\u7720\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

\u57161\uff1a1940\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u592a\u967d\u9ed1\u5b50\u7684\u9031\u671f\u8b8a\u5316\u3002Nasa's 2006 \u9810\u6e2c\u7b2c24\u9031\u671f\u9ad8\u5cf0\u672c\u61c9\u8a72\u51fa\u73fe\u57282010\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u76f4\u6c92\u6709\u89c0\u6e2c\u5230\u3002\uff08\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1ahttp:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/headlines\/y2006\/images\/longrange\/predictions3_strip.jpg\uff0c http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sunspot\uff09<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

\u4f86\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u592a\u967d\u5929\u6587\u53f0\uff08National Solar Observatory \uff0cNSO)\u7684Frank Hill\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5718\u968a\u572815\u5e74\u524d\u9996\u6b21\u767c\u73fe\u592a\u967d\u8868\u9762\u6771\u897f\u5411\u7684\u5674\u5c04\u6c23\u6d41\uff08jet stream\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u592a\u967d\u9031\u671f\u958b\u59cb\u6642\uff0c\u5674\u5c04\u6c23\u6d41\u8ddf\u9ed1\u5b50\u4e00\u6a23\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u4e2d\u7def\u5ea6\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u79fb\u5411\u8d64\u9053\u3002\u6839\u64da\u904e\u53bb\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u9031\u671f\uff08\u9031\u671f25\uff09\u9810\u8a08\u662f\u57282019\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u800c\u5674\u5c04\u6d41\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u65e9\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f2008\/09\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u81f3\u4eca\u5c1a\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f88\u5947\u7279\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u9031\u671f25\u6703\u6574\u500b\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u7684Matthew Penn\u548cWilliam Livingston\u5df2\u7d93\u89c0\u6e2c\u4e8613\u5e74\u7684\u592a\u967d\u9ed1\u5b50\u6578\u64da\u3002\u592a\u967d\u9ed1\u5b50\uff08\u57162\uff09\u662f\u592a\u967d\u5149\u7403\u4e0a\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u66ab\u6642\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u5f37\u70c8\u7684\u78c1\u6027\u6d3b\u52d5\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u5c0d\u6d41\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u5728\u5149\u7403\u8868\u9762\u5f62\u6210\u6eab\u5ea6\u6bd4\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u5448\u73fe\u9eef\u8272\u3002Penn\u548cLivingston \u767c\u73fe\u4e0d\u7ba1\u9ed1\u5b50\u6578\u76ee\u591a\u5be1\uff0c\u78c1\u5834\u662f\u6301\u7e8c\u6e1b\u5f31\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u52302021\u5e74\u78c1\u5834\u6703\u5f31\u5230\u7121\u6cd5\u6291\u5236\u5149\u7403\u8868\u9762\u7684\u5c0d\u6d41\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9ed1\u5b50\u5c31\u6703\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

\u57162\uff1a\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u8655\u65bc\u6975\u5c0f\u671f\uff08\u5de6\uff0c2006\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u6975\u5927\u671f\uff08\u53f3\uff0c2001\u5e74\uff09 \uff08\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1ahttp:\/\/www.spaceref.com\/news\/viewpr.html?pid=33826\uff09<\/p><\/div>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u5718\u968a\u4e5f\u662f\u4f86\u81eaNSO\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\u662f\u65e5\u5195 \uff08Corona\uff09\u3002\u5718\u968a\u4e3b\u6301\u4ebaRichard Altrock\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u904e\u53bb40\u5e74\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5728\u592a\u967d\u9031\u671f\u6975\u5927\u503c\u6642\uff0c\u65e5\u5195\u6703\u5c07\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u9031\u671f\u6b98\u7559\u7684\u78c1\u5834\u63a8\u5411\u5169\u6975\u5730\u5340\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73fe\u5728\u6c92\u6709\u89c0\u6e2c\u5230\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u592a\u967d\u9031\u671f\u6975\u5927\u503c\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u6307\u5411\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u6c92\u6709\u9032\u5165\u9810\u671f\u7684\u7b2c25\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6d3b\u52d5\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u9019\u5c0d\u901a\u8a0a\u9818\u57df\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u500b\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4f86\u81ea\u592a\u967d\u7684\u5e72\u64fe\u6703\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u597d\u5947\u7684\u662f\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u592a\u967d\u662f\u9032\u5165\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5982\u540c400\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u8499\u5fb7\u6975\u5c0f\u671f\uff08Maunder Minimum\uff09\u55ce\uff1f\u800c\u8207\u8499\u5fb7\u6975\u5c0f\u671f\u543b\u5408\u7684\u5c0f\u51b0\u671f\uff08Little Ice Age\uff09\u7684\u6eab\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u4e5f\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u55ce\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u5e6b\u5fd9\u5316\u89e3\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u5c0d\u5730\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u5f71\u97ff
\n<\/span><\/strong>\u6839\u64da\uff08IPCC\uff09\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u5c08\u5bb6\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\uff0c\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4e26\u4e0d\u986f\u8457\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5fb7\u570b\u6ce2\u8328\u5766\u6c23\u5019\u5f71\u97ff\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\uff09\u7684Georg Feulner \u548c Stefan Rahmstorf\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u592a\u967d\u9032\u5165\u4e00\u500b\u985e\u4f3c\u8499\u5fb7\u6975\u5c0f\u671f\uff0c\u5230\u4e862100\u5e74\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u8d77\u76ee\u524d\u6eab\u5ea6\uff0c\u592a\u967d\u7684\u8ca2\u737b\u662f\u8b93\u5730\u7403\u964d\u6eab0.3\u3002<\/sup>C\u3002\u800c\u4eba\u70ba\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u6392\u653e\u5247\u6703\u8b93\u5730\u7403\u589e\u52a0\u7d044\u3002<\/sup>C\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8981\u61c9\u4ed8\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u9084\u662f\u8981\u6e1b\u7de9\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u6392\u653e\u3002
\n<\/strong>
\n\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\uff1a
\n<\/strong>1. Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf 2010 \uff1a ” On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth” Geophysical Research Letters<\/em> VOL. 37, L05707.
\n2. Foukal, Peter; et al.. Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth’s climate. Nature<\/em>. 2006, 443 (7108): 161\u2013166.
\n3. Markus Becker: “Abk\u00fchlung: Forscher sagen lange Sonnenpause voraus”. Der Spiegel<\/em> June 17, 2011. \uff08http:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/wissenschaft\/weltall\/0,1518,768731,00.html<\/a>\uff09
\n4. “Sun down: Several lines of evidence suggest that the sun is about to go quiet “. The Economist<\/em>. June 16, 2011.
\n5. Phillips, Tony (10 May 2006). “Long Range Solar Forecast: Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.”. NASA Science<\/em>.
\n6. \u82f1\u6587\u7dad\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\uff1a global warming\uff08http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Global_warming#Solar_variation<\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\uff08Solar variation\uff09\u8207\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\uff08global warming\uff09\uff082\uff09\u2500\u592a\u967d\u6d3b\u52d5\u9032\u5165\u51ac\u7720\u671f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4805,4719,4801,4804],"tags":[874,3291,3288,3289,4475],"class_list":["post-30224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy11-02","category-energy00","category-energy11","category-energy11-01","tag-874","tag-3291","tag-3288","tag-3289","tag--or-","avhec_catgroup-all","loop-entry","cat-4805","cat-4719","cat-4801","cat-4804","no-thumbnail"],"views":6189,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/50"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30224"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":88323,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30224\/revisions\/88323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}