{"id":12445,"date":"2010-10-15T08:14:36","date_gmt":"2010-10-15T08:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw\/wordpress\/?p=12445"},"modified":"2021-10-06T16:31:09","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T08:31:09","slug":"%e6%8a%bd%e6%a8%a3%e8%aa%bf%e6%9f%a5survey-sampling-1%e5%89%8d%e8%a8%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/localhost\/%e6%8a%bd%e6%a8%a3%e8%aa%bf%e6%9f%a5survey-sampling-1%e5%89%8d%e8%a8%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\uff081\uff09\u524d\u8a00\uff08Survey sampling-1.Introduction\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\uff081\uff09\u524d\u8a00\uff08Survey sampling-1.Introduction\uff09
\n<\/span>\u570b\u7acb\u9ad8\u96c4\u5927\u5b78\u61c9\u7528\u6578\u5b78\u7cfb\u9ec3\u6587\u748b\u6559\u6388<\/span><\/span>\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u807d\u5230\u8abf\u67e5 (investigation)\u4e8c\u5b57\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u6709\u4e9b\u8b66\u89ba\u3002\u6211\u570b\u884c\u653f\u9662\u6cd5\u52d9\u90e8\u6709\u8abf\u67e5\u5c40\uff0c\u8981\u662f\u8abf\u67e5\u5c40\u4f86\u627e\u4f60\uff0c\u4f60\u5927\u7d04\u4e0d\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u6703\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u4e5f\u6709\u806f\u90a6\u8abf\u67e5\u5c40(Federal Bureau of Investigation,\u7b52\u7a31FBI)\uff0c\u5728\u96fb\u5f71\u4e2d\u5e38\u53ef\u770b\u5230\u5e79\u7df4\u7684FBI\u63a2\u54e1\u8fa6\u6848\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u88ab\u4ed6\u5011\u8abf\u67e5\u7684\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u5982\u4eba\u9b54(Hannibal\uff0c\u7531\u5b89\u6771\u5c3c\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af(Anthony Hopkins)\u4e3b\u6f14)\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u800c\u90a3\u7a2e\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u662f\u6db5\u84cb\u5bb6\u4e16\u3001\u6027\u5411\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6bcf\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u7d19\u4e4b\u7522\u5730\u3002\u53ef\u8aaa\u662f\u4e0a\u7aae\u78a7\u843d\u4e0b\u9ec3\u6cc9\uff0c\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u6bdb\u9aa8\u609a\u7136\u7684\u6295\u8b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u65e5\u5728\u5546\u696d\u4e0a\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e38\u6703\u9032\u884c\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5(survey sampling)\u3002\u96d6\u540c\u6a23\u6709\u201c\u8abf\u67e5\u201d\u4e8c\u5b57\uff0c\u4f46\u82f1\u6587\u4e00\u70bainvestigation\uff0c\u4e00\u70basurvey\uff0c\u4e43\u610f\u7fa9\u4e0d\u5927\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u5169\u500b\u5b57\u3002\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u9700\u8981\u505a\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\u5462?<\/p>\n

\u5728\u820a\u7d04\u8056\u77ed\u7684\u6c0f\u6578\u8a18(\u82f1\u6587\u7bc7\u540dNumbers)\uff0c\u8a18\u8f09\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u4eba\u51fa\u57c3\u53ca\u5f8c\uff0c $$12$$ \u500b\u652f\u6d3e $$20$$ \u6b72\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3002\u7e3d\u5171\u6709 $$603,550$$ \u4eba\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u652f\u6d3e\u5747\u8a08\u6578\u5230\u5341\u4f4d\u6578\u3002\u5728\u6c99\u6f20\u88e1\u9ede\u6578\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u6bcf\u4e00\u652f\u6d3e\u90fd\u6709\u5e7e\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u537b\u53ef\u6578\u5230\u5341\u4f4d\u6578\u3002\u6211\u570b\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5c0d\u4eba\u6578\u4e4b\u8a18\u8f09\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u6c92\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed4\u7d30\uff0c\u53ea\u5beb\u500b\u6982\u6578\u3002\u5982\u53f2\u8a18\u88e1\u7684\u6700\u9817\u85fa\u76f8\u5982\u50b3\uff0c\u8a18\u8f09\u201c\u8d99\u524d\u5f8c\u6240\u4ea1\u51e1\u56db\u5341\u4e94\u842c\u201d\uff0c \u201c\u79e6\u7834\u8d99,\u65ac\u9996\u5341\u842c\u201d\u3002\u53c8\u5982\u6c34\u6ef8\u50b3\u7b2c\u516d\u56de\uff0c\u4ecb\u7d39\u6797\u6c96\u662f\u516b\u5341\u842c\u7981\u8ecd\u69cd\u68d2\u6559\u982d \u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6c11\u6578\u8a18\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u53ef\u8aaa\u662f\u5f88\u7cbe\u6e96\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u5c6c\u65bc\u90a3\u4e00\u652f\u6d3e\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u5206\u5f97\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u8981\u77e5\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u505a\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\u6642\uff0c\u88ab\u8abf\u67e5\u8005\u5c0d\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u4e26\u7121\u6cd5\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u7d66\u51fa\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u5982\u5728\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u4e00\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6cd5\u56de\u7b54\u81ea\u5df1\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u672c\u7701\u4eba\u3001\u5ba2\u5bb6\u4eba\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5916\u7701\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6c11\u6578\u8a18\u4e2d\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u666e\u67e5(census)\u3002\u666e\u67e5\u662f\u8017\u6642\u8017\u529b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u5728\u8fb2\u696d\u793e\u6703,\u96de\u72ac\u76f8\u95a5\uff0c\u904a\u5fc5\u6709\u65b9\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u5c1a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u884c\u666e\u67e5\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u6709\u5c0f\u570b\u5be1\u6c0f\u624d\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u3002\u5c0d\u5e45\u54e1\u5ee3\u5927\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u773e\u591a\u7684\u5340\u57df\u4e26\u4e0d\u6613\u505a\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u4eba\u662f\u6703\u79fb\u52d5\u7684\uff0c\u5404\u5730\u5916\u51fa\u8b80\u66f8\u3001\u5c31\u696d\u53ca\u884c\u8e64\u4e0d\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5747\u4e0d\u5c11\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u666e\u67e5\u8981\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u53ef\u8aaa\u9817\u5177\u6297\u6230\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5b5f\u5b50\u842c\u7ae0\u4e0a\u7bc7,\u5b50\u5c1a\u66f8\u66f8\u6cf0\u8a93\u7bc7\u7684\u201c\u5929\u8996\u81ea\u6211\u6c0f\u8996,\u5929\u807d\u81ea\u6211\u6c0f\u807d\u201d\u3002\u5e7e\u5e74\u524d\u674e\u767b\u8f1d\u7e3d\u7d71\u4e5f\u8aaa”\u6c11\u4e4b\u6240\u6b32\u5e38\u5728\u6211\u5fc3”\u3002\u6c11\u8996\u3001\u6c11\u807d\u3001\u6c11\u4ecb\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ee5\u6c11\u610f\u4f86\u7a31\u3002\u5c0f\u81f3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u5927\u81f3\u570b\u5bb6\u67d0\u9805\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e38\u6703\u9700\u8981\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\uff0c\u4ee5\u8f03\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7372\u77e5\u6c11\u610f\u3002\u4f46\u6c11\u610f\u5982\u4f55\u7372\u77e5\u5462?<\/p>\n

\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u73ed\u4efb\u8ab2\u5e2b\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e00\u4f4d\u6700\u53d7\u540c\u5b78\u6b61\u8fce\uff0c\u8981\u662f\u4e00\u73ed\u53ea\u6709\u56db\u3001\u4e94\u5341\u4f4d\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u666e\u67e5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4f46\u5c0d\u8af8\u5982\u8abf\u6f32\u50f9\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u70ba\u6c11\u773e\u6240\u63a5\u7d0d\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8b70\u984c\u5c31\u4e0d\u6613\u7528\u666e\u67e5\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u610f\u3002\u5c0d\u4e00\u5927\u7c0d\u6a58\u5b50\uff0c\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u54c1\u8cea\u597d\u58de\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c07\u6bcf\u500b\u6a58\u5b50\u5747\u64a5\u958b\u4f86\u8a66\u5403\u3002\u4e0d\u4ee5\u666e\u67e5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u5f9e\u6bcd\u9ad4\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u6a23\u672c\u4f86\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u5373\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u4fbf\u6210\u70ba\u53d6\u4ee3\u666e\u67e5\u7684\u4e00\u7372\u53d6\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e4b\u5e38\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u9078\u6c11\u5c0d\u5404\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u3001\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u6c11\u773e\u5c0d\u67d0\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3001\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5c0d\u67d0\u9805\u5546\u54c1\u4e4b\u6eff\u610f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u5927\u5b78\u6240\u6709\u5efa\u7bc9\u7269\u5171\u7528\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u584a\u78da\u7b49\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u77ed\u7531\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\u5f97\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9023\u7d50\uff1a\u62bd\u6a23\u8abf\u67e5\uff082\uff09\u96a8\u6a5f\u73fe\u8c61<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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