{"id":8260,"date":"2011-03-30T11:01:05","date_gmt":"2011-03-30T03:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=8260"},"modified":"2017-03-31T23:20:45","modified_gmt":"2017-03-31T15:20:45","slug":"%e3%80%90%e5%8b%95%e7%89%a9%e8%a1%8c%e7%82%ba%e3%80%91%e5%88%a5%e7%9b%b8%e4%bf%a1%e4%b8%80%e9%a0%ad%e4%b8%8d%e5%88%b0%e5%85%ad%e5%8d%81%e6%ad%b2%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e8%b1%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=8260","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u52d5\u7269\u884c\u70ba\u3011\u5225\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e00\u982d\u4e0d\u5230\u516d\u5341\u6b72\u7684\u5927\u8c61"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u25a0 \u300c\u8c61\u300d\u662f\u8001\u7684\u8fa3\u3002\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5e74\u9f61\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u8f03\u80fd\u5224\u65b7\u5371\u96aa\u60c5\u52e2\uff0c\u4fdd\u8b77\u5979\u7684\u8c61\u7fa4\u3002\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u9700\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8eab\u5f37\u9ad4\u5065\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u9084\u5305\u62ec\u898b\u591a\u8b58\u5ee3\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8263\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8263\" style=\"width: 700px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8263\" title=\"Wasgamuwa National Park\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Dhammika-Heenpella@flickr.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"442\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8263\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u82e5\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u6bcd\u8c61\u5e74\u7d00\u8f03\u9577\uff0c\u80fd\u5224\u5225\u767c\u751f\u7f55\u898b\u4f46\u8f03\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u7345\u5b50\u653b\u64ca\uff0c\u8c61\u7fa4\u8f03\u80fd\u63a1\u53d6\u9069\u7576\u884c\u52d5\u56e0\u61c9\u5a01\u8105\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>\u7de8\u8b6f<\/strong> \u2223 \u6c6a\u8283<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u60f3\u8b93\u5927\u5bb6\u5728\u98ef\u684c\u4e0a\u722d\u8faf\u5230\u5927\u5435\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u60f3\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u591a\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6b0a\u5a01\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u9805\u6e2c\u8a66\u5927\u8c61\u9818\u5c0e\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e74\u6b72\u7d93\u9a57\u78ba\u5be6\u6bd4\u9752\u6625\u9084\u8981\u7121\u6575\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u82f1\u570b\u5e03\u840a\u9813\uff08Brighton\uff09\u85a9\u585e\u514b\u65af\u5927\u5b78\uff08University of Sussex\uff09\u7684\u9ea5\u574e\uff08Karen McComb\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5728\u5be6\u9a57\u4e2d\u6a21\u64ec\u5371\u96aa\u60c5\u52e2\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u516d\u5341\u6b72\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u6bd4\u5e74\u8f15\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u66f4\u80fd\u6e96\u78ba\u5224\u65b7\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u5be6\u9a57\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u64ad\u653e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7345\u543c\u9304\u97f3\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u8c61\u7fa4\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u5e74\u7d00\u8f03\u9577\uff0c\u5247\u807d\u5230\u516c\u7345\u53eb\u8072\u6642\uff0c\u8b66\u6212\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\uff1b\u800c\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u5e74\u7d00\u8f03\u8f15\u7684\u8c61\u7fa4\u5247\u6703\u4f4e\u4f30\u5371\u96aa\u3002\u9ea5\u574e\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5c07\u9019\u4efd\u7d50\u679c\u767c\u8868\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u300a\u502b\u6566\u7687\u5bb6\u5b78\u6703\u6703\u5831\uff22\u300b\uff08<em>Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B<\/em>\uff09\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u9ea5\u574e\u8aaa\uff0c\u8001\u6bcd\u8c61\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\u3002\u516c\u7345\u5f88\u5c11\u8972\u64ca\u5927\u8c61\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4e00\u65e6\u653b\u64ca\u5c31\u5341\u5206\u81f4\u547d\uff1a\u55ae\u7368\u4e00\u96bb\u516c\u7345\u5b50\u5c31\u80fd\u7375\u5230\u4e00\u96bb\u5e7c\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6b72\u6708\u7684\u667a\u6167<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u95dc\u65bc\u52d5\u7269\u9818\u5c0e\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u6d3b\u8e8d\uff0c\u300c\u52d5\u7269\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u548c\u4eba\u985e\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u64c1\u6709\u7684\u7279\u8cea\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5927\u5bb6\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u9818\u57df\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u597d\u5947\u4e86\u3002\u300d\u9ea5\u574e\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u963f\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4e39\u81ea\u7531\u5927\u5b78\uff08VU University Amsterdam\uff09\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u8303\u4f0d\u683c\u7279\uff08Mark van Vugt\uff09\u5c08\u7814\u7a76\u9818\u5c0e\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u8c61\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u7d55\u5c0d\u5275\u65b0\u3002\u300d\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u9700\u8981\u5c08\u9580\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6642\uff0c\u5e74\u9f61\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u52d5\u7269\u8f03\u80fd\u65bd\u5c55\u9818\u5c0e\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u77e5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4efd\u65b0\u8ad6\u6587\u628a\u6b64\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u77e5\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u727d\u6d89\u5a01\u8105\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u8303\u4f0d\u683c\u7279\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u9019\u5176\u4e2d\u5fc5\u9808\u53d6\u6368\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u53d6\u6368\u767c\u751f\u5728\u4eba\u985e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u4e5f\u767c\u751f\u5728\u5927\u8c61\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002\u8c61\u7fa4\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u5e0c\u671b\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u5e74\u8f15\u3001\u5065\u58ef\u3001\u527d\u608d\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u624d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8b77\u5927\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u963f\u8afe\u53f2\u74e6\u8f9b\u683c\uff08Schwarzenegger\uff09\u90a3\u7a2e\u985e\u578b\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e5f\u6703\u5e0c\u671b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u5e74\u7d00\u5927\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u7d93\u9a57\u8c50\u5bcc\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u50cf\u5fb7\u570b\u7e3d\u7406\u6885\u514b\u723e\uff08Merkel\uff09\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u7cbe\u6e96\u5224\u65b7\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u60c5\u52e2\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e00\u500b\u8c61\u7fa4\u7684\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u96bb\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u3001\u5341\u591a\u96bb\u548c\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u6709\u8840\u7de3\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u6bcd\u8c61\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5979\u5011\u7684\u5e7c\u8c61\uff0c\u8c61\u7fa4\u901a\u5e38\u80fd\u7dad\u7e6b\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u3002\u5e74\u7d00\u6700\u9577\u7684\u6bcd\u8c61\u6703\u64d4\u4efb\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u300c\u4f46\u5979\u4e0d\u7528\u9ad8\u58d3\u7d71\u6cbb\u3002\u300d\u9ea5\u574e\u8aaa\u3002\u6bd4\u65b9\u8c61\u7fa4\u65e9\u4e0a\u79fb\u52d5\u5230\u6c34\u5751\u559d\u6c34\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u4e0d\u6703\u8d70\u5728\u6700\u524d\u982d\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u6709\u5927\u8c61\u90fd\u6703\u96a8\u6642\u6ce8\u610f\u5979\u7684\u52d5\u5411\u53ca\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u70ba\u4e86\u6e2c\u8a66\u5927\u8c61\u9762\u5c0d\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u9ea5\u574e\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u540c\u4ec1\u5230\u80af\u4e9e\u7684\u5b89\u67cf\u8272\u5229\u570b\u5bb6\u516c\u5712\uff0c\u64ad\u653e\u7345\u543c\u8072\u7d66\u4e09\u5341\u4e5d\u500b\u8c61\u7fa4\u807d\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6bd4\u5c0d\u5927\u8c61\u807d\u5230\u4e00\u96bb\u7345\u543c\u548c\u4e09\u96bb\u7345\u543c\u5f8c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u6240\u6709\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u5747\u6b63\u78ba\u5bdf\u89ba\u4e09\u96bb\u7345\u5b50\u6bd4\u4e00\u96bb\u7345\u5b50\u8981\u4f86\u5f97\u5371\u96aa\u3002\u9019\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u8005\u859b\u5102\uff08Graeme Shannon\uff09\u4e5f\u4f86\u81ea\u85a9\u585e\u514b\u65af\u5927\u5b78\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u771f\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u767c\u73fe\u3002\u300d\u56e0\u70ba\u54ea\u4e9b\u7269\u7a2e\u64c1\u6709\u5a01\u8105\u6307\u6578\u8a55\u4f30\uff08numerical threat assessment\uff09\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\u4e00\u76f4\u7121\u6cd5\u8b49\u660e\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\u9084\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u77ad\u89e3\u4e86\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u5373\u5e74\u7d00\u8f03\u9577\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u6bcd\u8c61\u5bdf\u89ba\u80fd\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u53ef\u5224\u65b7\u516c\u7345\u6bd4\u6bcd\u7345\u5371\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u9ea5\u574e\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u8c61\u7fa4\u88e1\u6c92\u4e86\u8001\u8c61\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u6703\u6bd4\u6211\u5011\u539f\u5148\u60f3\u50cf\u5f97\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8001\u8c61\u662f\u8c61\u7fa4\u88e1\u7684\u751f\u614b\u548c\u793e\u6703\u77e5\u8b58\u5eab\u3002\u300d\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9396\u5b9a\u8001\u8c61\u7684\u76dc\u7375\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u5c0d\u5927\u8c61\u7684\u5b58\u7e8c\u5df2\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u7576\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9644\u9304\u5f71\u7247<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9019\u500b\u5a01\u8105\u8a55\u4f30\u6e2c\u8a66\u4e2d\uff0c\u9019\u7fa4\u5927\u8c61\u807d\u5230\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u7345\u543c\u8072\uff0c\u96a8\u5373\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<br \/>\n<iframe src=\"http:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/21111737?portrait=0\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<strong>\u5f71\u7247\u63d0\u4f9b<\/strong>\uff1aKaren McComb<\/p>\n<pre><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u5831\u5c0e\u51fa\u8655\uff1a<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencenewsmagazine.org\/view\/generic\/id\/71249\/title\/Dont_trust_any_elephant_under_60\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #333333;\">Don't trust any elephant under 60<\/span><\/a><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\uff08ScienceNews\uff09<\/span><\/pre>\n<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1aMissZoe<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u25a0 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