{"id":46744,"date":"2026-09-29T16:00:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T08:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=46744"},"modified":"2026-09-23T16:25:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T08:25:04","slug":"%e5%a4%9a%e9%9b%a8%e5%8d%bb%e7%bc%ba%e6%b0%b4%ef%bc%9a%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e6%96%b0%e5%b8%b8%e6%85%8b%ef%bc%9f%ef%bc%88%e4%b8%8a%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=46744","title":{"rendered":"\u591a\u96e8\u537b\u7f3a\u6c34\uff1a\u5730\u7403\u65b0\u5e38\u614b\uff1f\uff08\u4e0a\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e0a\u6b21\u64d4\u5fc3\u300c\u6c92\u6c34\u7528\u300d\uff0c\u8166\u888b\u88e1\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u7acb\u523b\u6d6e\u73fe\u6c34\u9f8d\u982d\u58de\u6389\u3001\u98b1\u98a8\u505c\u6c34\uff0c\u6216\u65b0\u805e\u4e3b\u64ad\u4e00\u81c9\u56b4\u8085\u5730\u8aaa\u300c\u6c34\u5eab\u898b\u5e95\u300d\uff1f\u4f46\u4f60\u5927\u6982\u6c92\u60f3\u904e\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5147\u624b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u96e8\u4e0b\u592a\u591a\u3002\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u7b11\u8a71\u5427\uff1f\u504f\u504f\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5730\u7403\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u602a\u5287\u60c5\uff1a\u8a31\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u96e8\u91cf\u7834\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u6c34\u5eab\u537b\u898b\u5e95\uff1b\u8857\u9053\u6ce1\u5728\u6c34\u88e1\uff0c\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\u537b\u4e7e\u5f97\u50cf\u6c99\u6f20\u3002\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40\u8aaa\u300c\u4eca\u5e74\u8d85\u6fd5\u300d\uff0c\u8fb2\u6c11\u537b\u8aaa\u300c\u4eca\u5e74\u8d85\u65f1\u300d\u3002\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u7d66\u9019\u5834\u9b27\u5287\u53d6\u4e86\u500b\u540d\u5b57\uff1a\u300c\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u8981\u5f9e\u300c\u514b\u52de\u514b\u62c9\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6ef2\u900f\u8d85\u984d\u300d\u8aaa\u8d77\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u64b0\u6587\uff5cA. H.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e00\uff1a\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u793a\u610f\u5716\uff5c\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\uff0fAI\u5354\u540c\u88fd\u5716<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u5728\u6211\u5011\u76f4\u89ba\u8a8d\u77e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f37\u964d\u96e8\u61c9\u662f\u4e7e\u65f1\u7684\u7d42\u7d50\u8005\u3002\u7136\u800c2026\u5e74\u6625\u5929\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u7d04\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u570b\u571f\u537b\u8655\u65bc\u4e7e\u65f1\u72c0\u614b\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u65b0\u805e\u88e1\u537b\u6eff\u662f\u7570\u5e38\u731b\u70c8\u7684\u66b4\u98a8\u96e8\u5831\u5c0e\uff1a\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u5c71\u6d2a\u66b4\u767c\u3001\u6771\u5317\u57ce\u93ae\u624d\u6df9\u904e\u6c34\u6c92\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u53c8\u518d\u5ea6\u88ab\u6d2a\u6c34\u8972\u64ca\u7b49\u985e\u4f3c\u96e8\u6c34\u6096\u8ad6\u7684\u707d\u60c5\u3002\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6e1b\u707d\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (UNDRR) \u65b0\u805e\u7db2\u5247\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4ee5\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u9762\u81e8\u66f4\u5f37\u7684\u98a8\u66b4\uff0c\u4f46\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e7e\u65f1\u53cd\u800c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u56b4\u91cd\uff1f\u300d\u70ba\u984c\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\u3002\u60f3\u60f3\u770b\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u600e\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u5340\u9b27\u65f1\u707d\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u537b\u53c8\u88ab\u89c0\u6e2c\u53f2\u4e0a\u731b\u70c8\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u7838\u500b\u6b63\u8457\uff1f\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u88ab\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u300d(Hydrological Whiplash) \u6216\u300c\u4e7e\u65f1\u5230\u6d2a\u6c34\u7684\u6025\u8f49\u300d(drought-to-flood transitions)\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u96e8\u4e0b\u5f97\u6108\u731b\uff0c\u571f\u5730\u53cd\u800c\u6108\u4e7e\u6e34\uff1f<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u300c\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u300d<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n

\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u5716\u4e00\u6240\u986f\u793a\u7684\uff1a\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u63ee\u52d5\u8457\u4e00\u689d\u88dd\u6eff\u6c34\u5206\u7684\u9577\u97ad\uff0c\u4e00\u6703\u5152\u62bd\u5411\u4e7e\u65f1\u6975\u7aef\uff0c\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u53c8\u731b\u70c8\u7529\u5411\u6d2a\u6c34\u6975\u7aef\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5730\u7403\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6Maharjan\u7b49\u4eba (2025) \u628a\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u6cb3\u5ddd\u6d41\u91cf\uff0c\u62ff\u53bb\u8ddf1981\u52302020\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5730\u8cea\u8abf\u67e5\u5c40 (USGS) \u6d41\u91cf\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u504f\u96e2\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u4e26\u6309\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u6578\u5c07\u6c34\u6587\u5e74\u5ea6\u5206\u985e\u70ba\uff1a\u6975\u67af (Critical)\u3001\u4e7e\u65f1 (Dry)\u3001\u6b63\u5e38\u504f\u4e0b (Below Normal)\u3001\u6b63\u5e38\u504f\u4e0a (Above Normal) \u53ca\u6fd5\u6f64 (Wet)\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6307\u91dd\u672c\u4f86\u61c9\u6162\u6162\u79fb\u52d5\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u537b\u986f\u793a\u5b83\u958b\u59cb\u7528\u529b\u5de6\u53f3\u7529\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f2015\u5e74\u5f8c\u66f4\u70ba\u660e\u986f\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e00\u500b\u6975\u7aef\u731b\u7136\u7529\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6975\u7aef\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7a81\u8b8a\u662f\u6eab\u5ea6\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u8207\u5927\u6c23\u74b0\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\u8b8a\u5316\u9593\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u5df2\u4e0a\u6f14\u904e\u6b64\u6548\u61c9\u597d\u5e7e\u6b21\u3002\u5982\u52a0\u5dde2012\u52302016\u5e74\u4e7e\u5f97\u8981\u547d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c2016\u51ac\u5929\u99ac\u4e0a\u88ab\u6d2a\u6c34\u7838\uff1b\u5fb7\u5dde2011\u52302015\u5e74\u5927\u65f1\uff0c\u6c92\u591a\u4e45\u537b\u53c8\u51fa\u73fe\u7834\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u6df9\u6c34\uff1b\u5bc6\u897f\u897f\u6bd4\u6cb3\u6d41\u57df\u66f4\u4e7e\u8106\uff0c2012\u5e74\u6975\u7aef\u4e7e\u65f1\uff0c2013\u5e74\u7acb\u523b\u8b8a\u6210\u53f2\u7121\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u5927\u6d2a\u6c34\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5c31\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u6a5f\u5236\u5728\u53cd\u8986\u767c\u4f5c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n

Maharjan\u7b49\u4eba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u96d6\u7136\u4ecd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u8207\u4eba\u70ba\u5e72\u9810\u96b1\u85cf\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5f80\u672a\u4f86\u63a8\u7b97\u300c\u6c34\u6587\u97ad\u6253\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u5247\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u6975\u7aef\u5e74\u5ea6\uff08\u6975\u67af\u6216\u6fd5\u6f64\uff09\u5c07\u5360\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5340\u57df\u90fd\u8b8a\u5f97\u65e5\u76ca\u7a00\u5c11\u3002\u5728\u8f03\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u6696\u5316\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u79d1\u7f85\u62c9\u591a\u6cb3\u6d41\u57df\u9019\u985e\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u4e7e\u65f1\u7f3a\u6c34\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u9054\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1b\u800c\u4e2d\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u8c50\u6c34\u5e74\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f9e\u4e09\u6210\u98c6\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u90a3\u500b\u300c\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u300d\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u6162\u6162\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u53ea\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u6975\u7aef\uff1a\u4e7e\u65f1\u6216\u6d2a\u6c34\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u758a\u5230\u793e\u6703\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u5730\u5716\u4e0a\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4e7e\u65f1\u6700\u6158\u7684\u90e1\u7e23\uff0c\u525b\u597d\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u6c92\u9322\u3001\u6700\u6c92\u61c9\u4ed8\u97cc\u6027\u7684\u90e1\u7e23\u3002\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u5c1a\u672a\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6a21\u64ec\u6c34\u5eab\u64cd\u4f5c\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u8b8a\u66f4\u53ca\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\u904e\u5ea6\u958b\u63a1\u5c0d\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u53cd\u994b\uff08\u5982\u704c\u6e89\u62bd\u6c34\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4e7e\u65f1\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u500d\u589e\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\uff0c\u5c0d\u61c9\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u793e\u6703\u539f\u672c\u5c31\u6709\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u6700\u7d42\u793a\u8b66\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6c34\u8cc7\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8b8a\u7570\u548c\u65b0\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8981\u63a2\u8a0e\u770b\u4f3c\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff1a\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5929\u7a7a\u4e2d\u7684\u96e8\u6108\u4e0b\u6108\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u5730\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u6c34\u537b\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5c11\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u5206\u5225\u628a\u5927\u6c23\u8207\u5730\u8868\u6bd4\u55bb\u70ba\u5169\u584a\u5438\u6c34\u6d77\u7dbf\u4f86\u5e6b\u52a9\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u5927\u6c23\u662f\u4e00\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\uff0c\u5730\u8868\u4e5f\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u3002\u7576\u96e8\u6c34\u843d\u4e0b\u6642\uff0c\u5b83\u5148\u88ab\u5927\u6c23\u9019\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u5438\u6536\uff0c\u518d\u843d\u5230\u5730\u8868\u9019\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u88e1\u3002\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u6c23\u9019\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u6703\u5438\u6c34\uff0c\u800c\u5730\u8868\u9019\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u537b\u8b8a\u5f97\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u4e7e\u786c\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u80fd\u7559\u4f4f\u6c34\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u5929\u7a7a\u843d\u4e0b\u7684\u6c34\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5730\u9762\u537b\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u4e7e\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5011\u8981\u63a2\u7a76\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5148\u4f86\u77ad\u89e3\u4e00\u4e0b\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u300c\u514b\u52de\u514b\u62c9\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d(<\/strong>Clausius-Clapeyron relation<\/strong>)<\/strong>\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31\u300cC-C\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5927\u6c23\u6d77\u7dbf\u7684\u300c\u514b\u52de\u514b\u62c9\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n

\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u590f\u5929\u7684\u7a7a\u6c23\u5e38\u4ee4\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u300c\u6fd5\u9ecf\u9ecf\u300d\uff0c\u51ac\u5929\u537b\u4e7e\u723d\u5f97\u591a\uff1f\u7a7a\u6c23\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u5668\u76bf\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u80fd\u88dd\u591a\u5c11\u6c34\u6c23\u5247\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u5b83\u6709\u591a\u71b1\uff0c\u9019\u689d\u898f\u5247\u53eb\u505a\u300c\u514b\u52de\u514b\u62c9\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d\uff0c\u6216\u7a31\u300c\u514b\u52de\u4fee\u65af-\u514b\u62c9\u4f69\u9f8d\u95dc\u4fc2\u300d\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u5c31\u78ba\u7acb\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u71b1\u529b\u5b78\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u6c23\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u89c0\u5ff5\u662f\uff1a\u5927\u6c23\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u584a\u6703\u547c\u5438\u7684\u6d77\u7dbf\uff0c\u628a\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u6e56\u6cca\u3001\u571f\u58e4\u88e1\u84b8\u767c\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6c34\u6c23\u5148\u5438\u9032\u53bb\uff0c\u5f85\u6642\u6a5f\u9069\u7576\u6642\uff0c\u518d\u628a\u5b83\u5011\u64f0\u51fa\u4f86\u8b8a\u6210\u96e8\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e0b\u96e8\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u80fd\u91cf\u9810\u7b97\u300d(energy budget)\u3002\u8981\u8b93\u6c34\u5f9e\u5730\u8868\u84b8\u767c\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u967d\u5149\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\uff08\u6f5b\u71b1\uff09\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u96e8\u6c34\u843d\u4e0b\u4f86\u6642\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u91cb\u653e\u80fd\u91cf\u3002\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5927\u6c23\u6301\u6c34\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u7387\uff08\u7d047%\uff0f\u2103\uff09\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u7387\uff08\u7d041-2%\uff0f\u2103\uff09\u3002\u7a7a\u6c23\u80fd\u6293\u7684\u6c34\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u4e867%\uff0c\u4f46\u5168\u7403\u7e3d\u964d\u96e8\u91cf\u53ea\u589e\u52a01-2%\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e2d\u95935%\u52306%\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u6975\u7aef\u5929\u6c23\u7684\u5143\u5147\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u843d\u5dee\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff0c\u5927\u6c23\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u300c\u91cd\u65b0\u5145\u6eff\u300d\u6c34\u6c23\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u4e0d\u983b\u7e41\uff1b\u4f46\u4e00\u65e6\u767c\u751f\u5c31\u662f\u731b\u70c8\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u578b\u614b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5e38\u8aaa\u7684\u300c\u4e0d\u96e8\u5247\u5df2\uff0c\u4e00\u96e8\u50be\u76c6\u300d(It never rains but it pours)\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u5927\u6c23\u5fc5\u9808\u7d2f\u7a4d\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6c34\u6c23\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u9054\u5230\u98fd\u548c\u4e26\u89f8\u767c\u5c0d\u6d41\uff0c\u7121\u96e8\u7684\u300c\u7a7a\u7a97\u671f\u300d\u56e0\u6b64\u62c9\u9577\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u9580\u6abb\u4ea6\u88ab\u62c9\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e7e\u65f1\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u56b4\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u56e0\u6b64\u500d\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"
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\u800c\u9019\u584a\u5927\u6c23\u6d77\u7dbf\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u8b93\u4eba\u982d\u75db\u7684\u813e\u6c23\uff1a\u5b83\u8b8a\u5927\u3001\u8b8a\u71b1\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u60f3\u628a\u6c34\u300c\u64f0\u51fa\u4f86\u300d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u66f4\u98e2\u6e34\u5730\u60f3\u5f9e\u5730\u9762\u628a\u6c34\u6c23\u5438\u56de\u53bb\u3002\u6c23\u6eab\u5347\u9ad8\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u84b8\u767c\u6563 (evapotranspiration) \u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u5730\u8868\u7684\u6c34\u88ab\u9019\u584a\u5927\u6c23\u6d77\u7dbf\u4ee5\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5438\u8d70\uff0c\u88dc\u9032\u5b83\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u88e1\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6548\u61c9\u540c\u6642\u593e\u64ca\uff0c\u6885\u52a0\u62c9\u4e9e\u5730\u5340\u624d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u908a\u96e8\u4e0b\u5f97\u66f4\u6025\u3001\u66f4\u731b\uff0c\u8b93\u6c34\u4f86\u4e0d\u53ca\u6ef2\u5165\u571f\u58e4\u5c31\u6d41\u5931\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u908a\u5728\u96e8\u505c\u7684\u7a7a\u6a94\uff0c\u53c8\u66f4\u8caa\u5a6a\u5730\u628a\u5730\u8868\u50c5\u5269\u7684\u6c34\u5206\u62bd\u56de\u5929\u4e0a\uff0c\u8b93\u571f\u5730\u4e7e\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u9664\u5927\u6c23\u6d77\u7dbf\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u518d\u628a\u5730\u9762\u571f\u58e4\u4e5f\u60f3\u50cf\u6210\u53e6\u4e00\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u3002\u9019\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u5728\u5929\u4e0a\u4e0b\u96e8\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u628a\u5730\u8868\u7684\u6c34\u5438\u9032\u53bb\u5b58\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u518d\u6162\u6162\u91cb\u653e\u5230\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\u88e1\u3002\u4e00\u584a\u6b63\u5e38\u904b\u4f5c\u7684\u5927\u5730\u6d77\u7dbf\uff0c\u6bcf\u5c0f\u6642\u5927\u6982\u80fd\u5438\u6536\u5e7e\u516c\u5206\u9ad8\u7684\u6c34\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u96e8\u4e0b\u5f97\u6bd4\u6d77\u7dbf\u5438\u6c34\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\uff0c\u6c34\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u90e8\u90fd\u6703\u88ab\u5438\u6536\u9032\u53bb\uff1b\u4f46\u96e8\u82e5\u4e0b\u5f97\u6bd4\u9019\u500b\u901f\u5ea6\u5feb\uff0c\u591a\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6c34\u5c31\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u5927\u5730\u6d77\u7dbf\u8868\u9762\u6d41\u8d70\u3002\u9019\u584a\u5927\u5730\u6d77\u7dbf\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e09\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u300c\u5931\u9748\u300d\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u96e8\u4e0b\u5f97\u6108\u731b\uff0c\u571f\u5730\u53cd\u800c\u6108\u6e34\u300d\u9019\u6574\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u5931\u9748\u65b9\u5f0f\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6ef2\u900f\u8d85\u984d\u300d(Infiltration Excess)\u3002<\/strong>\u9019\u584a\u5927\u5730\u6d77\u7dbf\u672c\u8eab\u529f\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u5438\u6c34\u80fd\u529b\u8ddf\u4ee5\u524d\u4e00\u6a23\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u554f\u984c\u662f\u51fa\u5728\u6c34\u9f8d\u982d\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5929\u4e0a\u7684\u96f2\uff09\u7684\u6c34\u7a81\u7136\u958b\u5f97\u592a\u731b\u3002\u6211\u5011\u82e5\u62ff\u4e00\u584a\u5b8c\u597d\u7684\u6d77\u7dbf\u653e\u5728\u6162\u6162\u6ef4\u6c34\u7684\u6c34\u9f8d\u982d\u5e95\u4e0b\uff0c\u6d77\u7dbf\u6703\u628a\u6bcf\u4e00\u6ef4\u90fd\u5438\u6536\u9032\u53bb\uff1b\u4f46\u628a\u6c34\u9f8d\u982d\u6574\u500b\u8f49\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u6c34\u6703\u7528\u6d88\u9632\u6813\u90a3\u7a2e\u529b\u9053\u76f4\u63a5\u50be\u7009\u800c\u4e0b\uff0c\u6d77\u7dbf\u6839\u672c\u4f86\u4e0d\u53ca\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6c34\u6703\u76f4\u63a5\u5f9e\u8868\u9762\u5f48\u958b\u6d41\u8d70\u3002\u5728\u81ea\u5bb6\u5f8c\u9662\u4e5f\u80fd\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u62ff\u5674\u9727\u5668\u8f15\u8f15\u5730\u5674\u4e7e\u571f\uff0c\u571f\u6703\u628a\u6c34\u5438\u6536\u9032\u53bb\uff1b\u4f46\u82e5\u76f4\u63a5\u5012\u4e0b\u4e00\u6574\u6876\u6c34\uff0c\u6c34\u5c31\u6703\u76f4\u63a5\u5674\u6ffa\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u6d41\u5230\u65c1\u908a\u7684\u5730\u677f\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u571f\u76c6\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6df1\u8655\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u662f\u4e7e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e09\uff1a\u300c\u6ef2\u900f\u8d85\u984d\u300d\u793a\u610f\u5716\uff5c\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\uff0fAI\u5354\u540c\u88fd\u5716<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u96a8\u8457\u5927\u6c23\u6696\u5316\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5e38\u7528\u50be\u76c6\u5927\u96e8\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u964d\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u7576\u5f37\u964d\u96e8\u767c\u751f\u6642\uff0c\u6c34\u5206\u964d\u843d\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u9060\u8d85\u904e\u571f\u58e4\u5438\u6536\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6c34\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8b8a\u6210\u5730\u5e95\u7684\u5132\u5099\uff08\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u4e86\u5730\u8868\u5f91\u6d41 (surface runoff)\uff0c\u8fc5\u901f\u88ab\u6c96\u9032\u6cb3\u6d41\u5f15\u767c\u6d2a\u6c34\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6ef2\u900f\u8d85\u984d\uff1a\u5927\u5730\u6d77\u7dbf\u6c92\u58de\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u964d\u96e8\u843d\u6c34\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8d0f\u904e\u4e86\u571f\u58e4\u7684\u5438\u6c34\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\uff08\u5f85\u7e8c\uff09<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

\u53c3\u8003\u6587\u737b<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Boutt, D. The US is seeing stronger storms, so why are droughts getting worse? May 28, 2026. UNDRR. Prevention Web.<\/a> *\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6e1b\u707d\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4(United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNDRR)\/ The Conversation version<\/a>. May 26, 2026.<\/li>\n
  2. Maharjan, S., Li, W., Bolten, J. D., & El-Askary, H. (2025). The future intensification of hydrological extremes and whiplashes in the contiguous United States increase community vulnerability. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 668.<\/a><\/li>\n
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  5. Paul, A. R., & Roy, P. K. (2026). When more rain means more drought: hydroclimatic drivers of increasing drought risk in the world\u2019s wettest region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 157(5), 275.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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