{"id":39188,"date":"2018-07-16T00:00:47","date_gmt":"2018-07-15T16:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=39188"},"modified":"2022-01-05T01:43:34","modified_gmt":"2022-01-04T17:43:34","slug":"ai%e5%b0%8d%e4%b8%96%e8%b6%b3%e8%b3%bd%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e7%9a%84%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=39188","title":{"rendered":"AI\u5c0d\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u9810\u6e2c"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"AI\u5c0d\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

\u53f0\u5927\u96fb\u6a5f\u7cfb \u9673\u660e\u4f51 \u7de8\u8b6f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u904b\u7528\u96c6\u9ad4\u667a\u6167\u7684Swarm AI<\/strong><\/p>\n

Swarm A.I.\u662f\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u53f8Unanimous A.I.\u6240\u958b\u767c\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u6b63\u78ba\u9810\u6e2c\u6642\u4ee3\u96dc\u8a8c\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u4eba\u7269\u3001\u5967\u65af\u5361\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u8207\u4e00\u5834\u8d85\u7d1a\u76c3\u8cfd\u4e8b\u6bd4\u6578\uff0c\u53ef\u8aaa\u6230\u529f\u5f6a\u70b3\u3002Swarm A.I.\u5b57\u9762\u4e0a\u7ffb\u8b6f\u70ba\u300c\u7fa4\u9ad4\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u300d\u3002\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u52d5\u7269\u754c\u7684\u96c6\u9ad4\u667a\u6167\uff08collective intelligence\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u879e\u87fb\u3001\u871c\u8702\u3001\u9ce5\u985e\u7b49\u7fa4\u9ad4\u52d5\u7269\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6bcf\u500b\u500b\u9ad4\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u80fd\u529b\u505a\u51fa\u8907\u96dc\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u901a\u904e\u5408\u4f5c\u8207\u5206\u5de5\u9054\u6210\u8907\u96dc\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6574\u500b\u7fa4\u9ad4\u770b\u4f3c\u4e00\u500b\u64c1\u6709\u55ae\u4e00\u601d\u7dad\u3001\u9ad8\u5ea6\u667a\u6167\u7684\u500b\u9ad4\u3002<\/p>\n

Swarm A.I.\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4ef0\u8cf4\u7fa4\u9ad4\u505a\u51fa\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002\u7576Swarm A.I.\u8981\u5c0d\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9032\u884c\u9810\u6e2c\u6642\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u5718\u968a\u6703\u8ca0\u8cac\u627e\u5230\u8a72\u9818\u57df\u7684\u5c08\u696d\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u8d85\u7d1a\u76c3\u6642\uff0c\u5171\u8aee\u8a6240\u4f4d\u8cc7\u6df1\u7403\u8ff7\u3002\u5728\u53c3\u914c\u6bcf\u4eba\u610f\u898b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7d93\u7531\u7279\u5b9a\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u6574\u5408\u51fa\u4e00\u4efd\u6700\u7d42\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6b21\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5247\u8207\u82f1\u570b\u516c\u53f8Colossus\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u7531\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u63d0\u4f9b\u8db3\u7403\u9818\u57df\u7684\u5e7e\u4f4d\u5c08\u5bb6\uff0c\u518d\u7d93\u7531\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u6574\u5408\u6bcf\u500b\u5c08\u5bb6\u7684\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u5927\u8166\u5011\u7684\u5927\u8166\uff08a brain of brains\uff09\u300d\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u91cd\u9ede\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a\u5fb7\u570b\u5c07\u64ca\u6557\u5df4\u897f\u885b\u5195\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u51a0\u8ecd\uff1b\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u548c\u6cd5\u570b\u5c07\u5728\u5b63\u8ecd\u8cfd\u4ea4\u92d2\u4e26\u7372\u52dd\uff1b\u4e0a\u5c46\u4e9e\u8ecd\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u672c\u6b21\u5c07\u7121\u7de3\u56db\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d14\u7cb9\u7531\u6a5f\u5668\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u8996\u70ba\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff1f\u6050\u6015\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u722d\u8b70\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u96a8\u6a5f\u68ee\u6797\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7531\u5fb7\u570b\u3001\u6bd4\u5229\u6642\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u8de8\u570b\u5718\u968a\u958b\u767c\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u5247\u53c3\u914c\u4e86\u4e09\u7a2e\u50b3\u7d71\u5e38\u7528\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u84b2\u74e6\u677e\u56de\u6b78\uff08Poisson Regression\uff09\u3001\u96a8\u6a5f\u68ee\u6797\uff08Random Forest\uff09\u8207\u6392\u5e8f\u6cd5\uff08Ranking Method\uff09\uff0c\u4ed4\u7d30\u8a55\u4f30\u5404\u81ea\u9810\u6e2c\u8868\u73fe\u8207\u4f7f\u7528\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u65b0\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u96a8\u6a5f\u68ee\u6797\u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u76f8\u7576\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u300c\u68ee\u6797\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u5b83\u904b\u7528\u591a\u500b\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a39\uff1b\u300c\u96a8\u6a5f\u300d\u5247\u662f\u6bcf\u500b\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a39\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8b8a\u6578\u96c6\u5408\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a39\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5229\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u8a55\u4f30\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5404\u9805\u8b8a\u6578\u5c0d\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u5206\u985e\u5668\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u8a08\u7b97\u4efb\u4e00\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u5be6\u73fe\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u8a13\u7df4\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5927\u7f3a\u9677\u2500\u904e\u9069\u554f\u984c\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6a5f\u5668\u6240\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u300c\u592a\u50cf\u662f\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u5931\u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u68ee\u6797\u6b63\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u89e3\u6c7a\u904e\u9069\u554f\u984c\u800c\u8a95\u751f\uff0c\u85c9\u7531\u7522\u751f\u591a\u68f5\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a39\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8b8a\u6578\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u4e0d\u540c\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a39\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u767c\u751f\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u6709\u591a\u68f5\u6a39\u7684\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u904e\u9069\u8207\u504f\u898b\u7684\u7522\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6392\u5e8f\u6cd5\u5247\u53c3\u914c\u5982FIFA\u3001\u5404\u5bb6\u535a\u5f08\u516c\u53f8\u5c0d\u5404\u968a\u4f0d\u7684\u6392\u5e8f\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u65b7\u5404\u968a\u5be6\u529b\u3002\u5c07\u6392\u5e8f\u6cd5\u7522\u751f\u7684\u6578\u64da\u52a0\u5165\u96a8\u6a5f\u68ee\u6797\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u4f73\u5316\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6548\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d93\u904e\u5341\u842c\u6b21\u6a21\u64ec\u5f8c\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff1a\u5df4\u897f\u596a\u51a0\u5e0c\u671b\u6700\u9ad8\uff1b\u5fb7\u570b\u5247\u4ee52%\u6a5f\u7387\u7dca\u8ffd\u5728\u5f8c\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u55ae\u770b\u968a\u4f0d\u52dd\u7387\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u8cfd\u7a0b\uff08\u56e0\u5c0d\u6230\u7d44\u5408\u4e5f\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u6392\u540d\uff09\uff0c\u5247\u4ee5\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u52dd\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u592a\u597d\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u5fb7\u570b\u8207\u51a0\u8ecd\u65e9\u5df2\u7121\u7de3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7531Swarm A.I. \u6240\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u5206\u7d44\u7a4d\u5206\u8cfd\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5728\u5e7e\u500b\u7d44\u5225\u4e0a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u543b\u5408\uff0c\u5341\u516d\u5f37\u4e5f\u4e2d\u4e86\u5341\u4e09\u5f37\u3002\u96a8\u6a5f\u68ee\u6797\u7b97\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5341\u516d\u5f37\u66f4\u662f\u4e2d\u4e86\u5341\u4e94\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6295\u8cc7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8Golden Sachs\u7684A.I.\u4ea6\u5c0d\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u505a\u51fa\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a\u6c7a\u8cfd\u5c07\u7531\u5df4\u897f\u5c0d\u4e0a\u5fb7\u570b\uff0c\u800c\u5df4\u897f\u6709\u671b\u596a\u51a0\uff0c\u5730\u4e3b\u968a\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5247\u5c07\u5728\u5206\u7d44\u968e\u6bb5\u6dd8\u6c70\u3002\u55ae\u770b\u968a\u4f0d\u52dd\u7387\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u968a\u5247\u9ad8\u5c45\u7b2c\u4e8c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u6a23\u6c92\u80fd\u6599\u5230\u5fb7\u570b\u63d0\u524d\u51fa\u5c40\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4e5f\u662f\u5dee\u5f37\u4eba\u610f\uff1a\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5728\u777d\u9055\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u9032\u5165\u516b\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e16\u4e0a\u5c11\u6709\u5982\u904b\u52d5\u7af6\u6280\u5982\u6b64\u8ff7\u4eba\u4e4b\u7269\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5230\u4e86\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u793e\u6703\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u8b8a\u5316\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6539\u8b8a\u4e0d\u4e86\u7fa4\u773e\u90a3\u4efd\u96a8\u4e4b\u6cb8\u9a30\u7684\u4e00\u8154\u71b1\u8840\u30027\u670815\u65e5\u7684\u6c7a\u8cfd\u5c07\u6c7a\u5b9a\u672c\u5c46\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u51a0\u8ecd\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7d39\u7684\u5169\u7d44AI\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4e86\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a\u5206\u5225\u662f\u5fb7\u570b\u968a\u8207\u5df4\u897f\u968a\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u7d50\u679c\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5c31\u4ea4\u7531\u8b80\u8005\u4f60\u4f86\u9a57\u8b49\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. A. Groll, C. Ley, G. Schauberger and H. Van Eetvelde, \u201cPrediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018 \u2013 A random forest approach with an emphasis on estimated team ability parameters<\/a>\u201c, Arxiv.org, 2018.<\/li>\n
  2. A. Zeileis, C. Leitner and K. Hornik, \u201cProbabilistic forecasts for the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on the bookmaker consensus model<\/a>\u201c, Econpapers.repec.org, 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u64b0\u5beb\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u5df2\u9032\u5165\u516b\u5f37\u8cfd\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u773e\u4eba\u770b\u597d\u7684\u968a\u4f0d\uff0c\u537b\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u5730\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\u65e9\u5df2\u6dd8\u6c70\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u9a5a\u7684\uff0c\u83ab\u904e\u65bc\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u53f2\u4e0a\u6230\u7e3e\u8f1d\u714c\u7684\u5fb7\u570b\u968a\uff0c\u7adf\u672a\u80fd\u9032\u5165\u5341\u516d\u5f37\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u8207\u5357\u97d3\u4e00\u5f79\uff0c\u6c92\u4eba\u80fd\u6599\u5230\u6614\u65e5\u7684\u51a0\u8ecd\u968a\u4f0d\u537b\u6dea\u70ba\u55aa\u5bb6\u4e4b\u72ac\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u65e9\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u4e16\u8db3\u8cfd\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u591a\u500b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c0d\u5341\u516d\u5f37\u8cfd\u5230\u7e3d\u51a0\u8ecd\u8cfd\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4e4f\u56db\u500b\u6708\u524d\u66fe\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\u5967\u65af\u5361\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u4f46\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u539f\u7406\u8207\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u6216\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u5f80\u5f8cAI\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u501f\u93e1\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":39189,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3772,3293],"tags":[6220,3931,3930],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/AI-FIFA.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39188"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39188"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39188\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39190,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39188\/revisions\/39190"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/39189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}