{"id":35501,"date":"2020-07-29T00:12:09","date_gmt":"2020-07-28T16:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=35501"},"modified":"2020-07-27T14:59:54","modified_gmt":"2020-07-27T06:59:54","slug":"%e6%96%b0%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e6%9c%89%e5%8a%a9%e4%bf%ae%e6%ad%a3%e7%be%a4%e9%ab%94%e5%85%8d%e7%96%ab%e9%96%80%e6%aa%bb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=35501","title":{"rendered":"\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u52a9\u4fee\u6b63\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u9580\u6abb"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\"\"\u64b0\u6587\uff0f\u9673\u6566\u7406<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u52a0\u5165\u5e74\u9f61\u8207\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52d5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7531\u82f1\u570b\u8afe\u4e01\u6f22\u5927\u5b78 (University of Nottingham) \u8207\u745e\u5178\u65af\u5fb7\u54e5\u723e\u6469\u5927\u5b78 (University of Stockholm) \u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u806f\u624b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u4f30\u7b97COVID- 19 \u9054\u5230\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u6578\u64da\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u75c5\u6bd2\u50b3\u64ad\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u767c\u73fe\u5e74\u9f61\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52d5\u5c0d\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u50b3\u64ad\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002\u65bc\u662f\u5c07\u6c11\u773e\u6309\u7167\u5e74\u9f61\u9ad8\u4f4e\u5206\u6210\u516d\u500b\u5340\u6bb5\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u5340\u6bb5\u518d\u6309\u7167\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52d5\u591a\u5be1\u5206\u6210\u9ad8\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u4f4e\u4e09\u7a2e\u7b49\u7d1a\u3002\u63a5\u8457\u6839\u64da\u76f8\u95dc\u7814\u7a76\u8a2d\u5b9a\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f8c\u6703\u6709\u4e09\u5929\u7684\u6f5b\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c\u5f9e\u7b2c\u56db\u5929\u958b\u59cb\u5230\u7b2c\u4e03\u5929\u9019\u56db\u5929\u6703\u50b3\u64ad\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u5e73\u5747\u6703\u50b3\u67d3\u7d66 2.5\u500b\u4eba\u3002\u7d93\u904e\u6821\u6b63\u3001\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7b97\u51fa\u52a0\u5165\u5e74\u9f61\u6578\u64da\u6642\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u514d\u75ab\u529b\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0b\u964d\u5230 55.8%\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52d5\u6578\u64da\u6642\u5247\u662f 46.3%\u3002\u540c\u6642\u52a0\u5165\u5e74\u9f61\u8207\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6578\u64da\u6642\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u898143%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5c0d\u75c5\u6bd2\u6709\u514d\u75ab\u529b\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u9054\u5230\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4f7f\u7528\u50b3\u7d71\u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u4f30\u7b97COVID- 19\u9054\u5230\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u6240\u9700\u8981\u4e4b\u514d\u75ab\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6642\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u500b\u5225\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5047\u8a2d\u6c11\u773e\u4ee5\u63a5\u7a2e\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u7372\u5f97\u514d\u75ab\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u65bd\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u76f8\u540c\u7b49\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u537b\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u75ab\u82d7\u53ef\u7528\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5c0dCOVID- 19\u6709\u514d\u75ab\u7684\u4eba\u7686\u662f\u5728\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4e2d\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u50b3\u7d71\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u6c92\u6709\u5c07\u4eba\u5011\u7a2e\u7a2e\u8907\u96dc\u884c\u70ba\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u50b3\u64ad\u7684\u901f\u7387\u7d0d\u5165\u8003\u616e\u800c\u9020\u6210\u8aa4\u5dee\u3002\u50b3\u7d71\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u75c5\u6bd2\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u6642\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u800c\u9054\u5230\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u7d04\u6703\u843d\u572850%\u523075%\u4e4b\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

1\u3001Tom Britton, Frank Ball, Pieter Trapman. A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science.  2020.<\/p>\n

2\u3001\u56b4\u91cd\u7279\u6b8a\u50b3\u67d3\u6027\u80ba\u708e\u3002\u885b\u751f\u798f\u5229\u90e8\u75be\u75c5\u7ba1\u5236\u7f72\u30022020\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u78b0\u5230\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u7dca\u947c\u5bc6\u9f13\u8207\u6642\u9593\u8cfd\u8dd1\u7814\u767c\u75ab\u82d7\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u4f55\u6642\u75c5\u6bd2\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u63a7\u5236\uff1f\u90a3\u4e00\u7a2e\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u9632\u6b62\u75be\u75c5\u64f4\u6563\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7576\u5168\u570b\u6216\u8a72\u5730\u5340\u7d04 60%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5c0d\u75c5\u6bd2\u514d\u75ab\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6253\u65b7\u75c5\u6bd2\u50b3\u64ad\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab (herd immunity)\u3002\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u6a21\u578b\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u5e74\u9f61\u8207\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u52d5\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u7fa4\u9ad4\u514d\u75ab\u6240\u9700\u4eba\u53e3\u6578\u5247\u70ba43%\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":35504,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4580,3293,1025],"tags":[4694,4695,4693],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/businessmen-5243087_640.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35501"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35501"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35506,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35501\/revisions\/35506"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/35504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}