{"id":3227,"date":"2010-05-13T14:43:16","date_gmt":"2010-05-13T06:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=3227"},"modified":"2017-03-31T23:21:23","modified_gmt":"2017-03-31T15:21:23","slug":"%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e6%b8%ac%e4%b8%8d%e6%ba%96%e5%8e%9f%e7%90%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=3227","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u3011\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6e2c\u4e0d\u6e96\u539f\u7406"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_3230\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3230\" style=\"width: 256px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3230    \" title=\"\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u77e5\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u77e5.jpg\" alt=\"\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u77e5\" width=\"256\" height=\"384\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3230\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u6700\u5e38\u9762\u5c0d\u300c\u672a\u77e5\u300d\u672a\u77e5\u6578\u7684\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6c7a\u7b56\u672c\u8eab\u537b\u4e0d\u6642\u70ba\u300c\u5df2\u77e5\u300d\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u6578\u6240\u8aa4\u5c0e\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u25a0 \u5931\u6557\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u63a7\u7ba1\u52a9\u9577\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u66f4\u77ad\u89e3\u300c\u672a\u77e5\u300d\u600e\u9ebc\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u98a8\u96aa\u63a7\u7ba1\u3002\u4f46\u627f\u8a8d\u793e\u6703\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u73fe\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u6839\u672c\u7684\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e4b\u9053\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333;\"><strong>\u64b0\u6587<\/strong>?\u2223 Philip Ball<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u5f88\u96e3\u60f3\u50cf\u5f8c\u4eba\u6703\u5c07\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u570b\u9632\u90e8\u9577\u502b\u65af\u6590\uff08Donald Rumsfeld\uff09\u5949\u70ba\u98a8\u96aa\u8a55\u4f30\u754c\u7684\u5148\u77e5\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u7684\u540d\u8a00\u300c\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u300d\uff08unknown unknowns\uff09\u88ab\u4eba\u8996\u70ba\u80e1\u8a00\u4e82\u8a9e\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed4\u7d30\u60f3\u4f86\u537b\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7121\u9053\u7406\u3002\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\u9ede\u51fa\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u7576\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u7406\u89e3\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u9810\u898b\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u5230\u982d\u4f86\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u7ffb\u5148\u524d\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u6700\u5e38\u9762\u5c0d\u300c\u672a\u77e5\u300d\u672a\u77e5\u6578\u7684\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6c7a\u7b56\u672c\u8eab\u537b\u4e0d\u6642\u70ba\u300c\u5df2\u77e5\u300d\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u6578\u6240\u8aa4\u5c0e\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8cc7\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u4fbf\u5b58\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u5371\u96aa\u4e4b\u8655\u4e26\u975e\u5176\u5b58\u5728\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u7528\u4f86\u8a55\u4f30\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u9084\u7372\u9812\u4e86\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u7d66\u4eba\u4e00\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u63e1\u7684\u932f\u89ba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7576\u524d\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u88ab\u6aa2\u8a0e\u518d\u4e09\uff0c\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u51fa\u4e86\u5dee\u932f\u3002\u7d30\u7a76\u5176\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e3\u767c\u73fe\u4e00\u500b\u6b98\u9177\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u9810\u6e2c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5617\u8a66\u7d42\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u5f92\u52de\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f\uff08Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff09\u5728\u5176\u77e5\u540d\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6548\u61c9\u300b\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Black_Swan_%28Taleb_book%29\" target=\"_blank\">Black Swan<\/a>\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u74e6\u89e3\u6c38\u9060\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u898b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u9060\u8d85\u904e\u50b3\u7d71\u7406\u8ad6\u6240\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u5728\u5982\u6b64\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f55\u4ee5\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4f9d\u820a\u904b\u4f5c\u5982\u5e38\u5462\uff1f\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u53f2\u9686\u7ba1\u7406\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u7f85\u805e\u5168\uff08Andrew Lo\uff09\u548c\u7a46\u52d2\uff08Mark Mueller\uff09\u5728\u9810\u5370\u672c\u7db2\u7ad9\uff08arXiv\uff09\u4e0a\u767c\u8868\u8ad6\u6587\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u7d93\u5e38\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u66ff\u98a8\u96aa\u5206\u9580\u5225\u985e\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u540c\u502b\u65af\u6590\u90a3\u4e9b\u98a8\u8a55\u4e0d\u4f73\u7684\u5206\u985e\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e00\u822c\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ea\u6709\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8a55\u4f30\u624d\u80fd\u8207\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b78\u4e2d\u8655\u7406\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u50b3\u7d71\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u904b\u7c4c\u548c\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u9069\u7528\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u66f4\u70ba\u660e\u78ba\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7269\u7406\u5d07\u62dc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7f85\u805e\u5168\u548c\u7a46\u52d2\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u300c\u7269\u7406\u5d07\u62dc\u300d\u5728\u7576\u4eca\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8655\u7406\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u95dc\u9375\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u3002\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u60f3\u671b\uff0c\u4e43\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u5efa\u69cb\u4e00\u5957\u50cf\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u90a3\u6a23\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u73fe\u4ee3\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u591a\u9015\u53d6\u6750\u81ea\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6cf0\u6597\u85a9\u7e46\u723e\u68ee\uff08Paul Samuelson\uff09\u5728\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e5d\u56db\u4e03\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u540d\u8457\u300a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u57fa\u790e\u300b(Foundations of Economic Analysis)\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u8a72\u66f8\u7684\u5275\u4f5c\u9748\u611f\u4f86\u81ea\u6578\u5b78\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u5a01\u723e\u68ee\uff08Edwin Bidwell Wilson\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u5a01\u723e\u68ee\u5247\u662f\u7d71\u8a08\u7269\u7406\u5927\u5e2b\u5409\u5e03\u58eb\uff08J. Willard Gibbs\uff09\u7684\u611b\u5f92\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u85a9\u7e46\u723e\u68ee\u5728\u919e\u91c0\u90a3\u4e9b\u516c\u5f0f\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u5df2\u7d93\u767c\u73fe\u96a8\u6a5f\u71b1\u566a\u8072\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5e38\u614b\u6216\u9ad8\u65af\u6ce2\u52d5\u5206\u4f48\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\uff08\u9418\u5f62\u66f2\u7dda\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3246\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3246\" style=\"width: 221px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3246 \" title=\"The_black_swan_taleb_cover\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/The_black_swan_taleb_cover2.jpg\" alt=\"The_black_swan_taleb_cover\" width=\"221\" height=\"340\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3246\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6548\u61c9\uff1a\u572818\u4e16\u7d00\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u767c\u73fe\u6fb3\u6d32\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u5929\u9d5d\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u770b\u898b\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u624d\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">?<strong>?\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u61c9\u8a72\u610f\u8b58\u5230\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u6253\u5f9e\u4e00\u4e5d\u516d\u25cb\u5e74\u4ee3\u8d77\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c31\u66c9\u5f97\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u5448\u73fe\u300c\u539a\u5c3e\u300d\uff08fat-tailed\uff09\u7684\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u5176\u5206\u5e03\u66f2\u7dda\u8207\u9418\u5f62\u76f8\u53bb\u751a\u9060\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u6a19\u6e96\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u90fd\u4e0d\u6eff\u8db3\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5c31\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7528\u4ee5\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u6b0a\uff08option\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u6642\uff0c\u6240\u61c9\u4ed8\u51fa\u50f9\u78bc\u7684\u300c\u5e03\u840a\u514b-\u4f11\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u300d\uff08Black\u2013Scholes formula\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u8aa4\u5224\u539f\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5b9a\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u932f\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5c31\u986f\u5f97\u6c92\u90a3\u9ebc\u56b4\u91cd\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u7f85\u805e\u5168\u548c\u7a46\u52d2\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u8981\u5c07\u4ea4\u6613\u6c7a\u7b56\uff08\u5074\u91cd\u6578\u5b78\uff09\u548c\u5546\u696d\u6c7a\u7b56\uff08\u4ef0\u8cf4\u7d93\u9a57\u548c\u76f4\u89ba\uff09\u5340\u5206\u958b\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>?<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u50b3\u7d71\u89c0\u9ede\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce2\u52d5\u4f86\u81ea\u5916\u754c\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u9020\u6210\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u4e26\u85c9\u7531\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u50b3\u64ad\u958b\u4f86\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u6709\u5176\u9053\u7406\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u5916\u5728\u56e0\u7d20\u5f88\u96e3\u7528\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u7f85\u805e\u5168\u548c\u7a46\u52d2\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u7121\u7406\u53ef\u5faa\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u7121\u6cd5\u9032\u884c\u5b9a\u91cf\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u5831\u916c\u8d77\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4ed6\u5011\u63d0\u8b70\u5c07\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u5283\u5206\u6210\u4e94\u500b\u7b49\u7d1a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u7269\u7406\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7686\u53ef\u9069\u7528\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u300c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u78ba\u5b9a\u300d\u5c31\u50cf\u725b\u9813\u529b\u5b78\u4e00\u822c\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4fbf\u53ef\u5b8c\u5168\u9810\u77e5\u672a\u4f86\u3002\u9084\u6709\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u904e\u7a0b\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u800c\u5fc5\u9808\u4ef0\u8cf4\u7d71\u8a08\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\uff08\u5982\u64f2\u786c\u5e63\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u5247\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7121\u7406\u53ef\u5faa\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u7a2e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u5168\u7136\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6536\u96c6\u518d\u591a\u6578\u64da\u3001\u7528\u66f4\u9ad8\u660e\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u9810\u6e2c\u3001\u63db\u66f4\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u3001\u7d5e\u76e1\u8166\u6c41\u601d\u8003\u90fd\u65bc\u4e8b\u7121\u88dc\uff0c\u4e00\u5982\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u300d\u3002\u7269\u7406\u901a\u5e38\u5b58\u5728\u8f03\u70ba\u9ad8\u968e\u6613\u65bc\u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u50be\u5411\u4f4e\u968e\u4e26\u4e14\u96e3\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7f85\u805e\u5168\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u55ae\u53ea\u662f\u5b57\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u985e\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u8655\u7406\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u554f\u984c\u7684\u67b6\u69cb\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u5f97\u4ee5\u5224\u65b7\u4e00\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u5c6c\u65bc\u4f55\u7a2e\u7b49\u7d1a\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6bcf\u65e5\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5c31\u6c92\u4ec0\u9ebc\u628a\u63e1\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u8655\u7406\u4e00\u4e9b\u66f4\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8aaa\u5728\u4f55\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5169\u7a2e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u76f8\u7570\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u4ee5\u5957\u7528\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6642\u9593\u6216\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u884c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4ed6\u5011\u5e0c\u671b\u5916\u754c\u5354\u52a9\u57f9\u8a13\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5f8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4eba\u624d\u3002\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u70ba\u8a13\u7df4\u6709\u7d20\u7684\u57f7\u696d\u8005\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u73fe\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u4fb7\u9650\u4e4b\u8655\u66f4\u70ba\u8b66\u89ba\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u7528\u4f86\u4f30\u7b97\u300c\u4e00\u822c\u696d\u52d9\u300d\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\u88e1\u65e5\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u5c07\u5546\u696d\u6c7a\u7b56\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ea4\u7d66\u90a3\u4e9b\u300c\u4ee5\u70ba\u300d\u81ea\u5df1\u624b\u908a\u6a21\u578b\u8db3\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u6240\u6709\u6f5b\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u662f\u5f88\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u3002\u60f3\u8981\u771f\u6b63\u6d88\u9664\u90a3\u4e9b\u6548\u6cd5\u7269\u7406\uff0c\u4ee5\u770b\u4f3c\u9ad8\u660e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u71df\u9020\u51fa\u7684\u5047\u8c61\uff0c\u4f55\u4e0d\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8ab2\u5802\u4e0a\u5c31\u76f4\u63a5\u544a\u8a34\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u80fd\u9069\u7528\u5728\u5177\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5834\u5408\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\uff08\u672c\u6587\u70ba\u4e8c\u25cb\u4e00\u25cb\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e94\u65e5\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\u5c08\u6587\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005Philip Ball\u5f9e\u4e8b\u79d1\u5b78\u5beb\u4f5c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u81ea\u7136\u96dc\u8a8c\u7684\u9867\u554f\u7de8\u8f2f\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"COLOR: #800000\"><strong>\u539f\u8f09\u65bc\u3010<a href=\"http:\/\/k-review.com.tw\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u77e5\u8b58\u901a\u8a0a\u8a55\u8ad6\u6708\u520a\u4e5d\u5341\u4e00\u671f<\/span><\/a><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u30112010.05.01??????????????????????????????????????????????? <\/span><\/strong><\/span><span style=\"COLOR: #800000\"><strong><span style=\"COLOR: #003366\">CASE\u7db2\u8a8c\u597d\u8b80\u7248 by MissZoe<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<pre><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\uff0a\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v441\/n7094\/full\/441686a.html\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #333333;\">Econophysics: Culture Crash<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u7269\u7406\u5b78\uff1a\u6587\u5316\u78b0\u649e\uff08<em>Nature<\/em>\uff0c2006 June\uff09?<\/span><\/pre>\n<p><a type=\"box_count\" name=\"fb_share\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php\">\u5206\u4eab\u5230facebook <\/a><\/p>\n<p><script src=\"http:\/\/static.ak.fbcdn.net\/connect.php\/js\/FB.Share\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u25a0 \u5931\u6557\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u63a7\u7ba1\u52a9\u9577\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u7d93<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3293,22],"tags":[315,2250,295,167,316],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3227"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3227"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3227\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18431,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3227\/revisions\/18431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}