

{"id":29552,"date":"2017-10-10T00:27:25","date_gmt":"2017-10-09T16:27:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=29552"},"modified":"2018-07-29T12:21:10","modified_gmt":"2018-07-29T04:21:10","slug":"2050%e6%93%ba%e8%84%ab%e7%9f%b3%e5%8c%96%e7%87%83%e6%96%99%e4%b8%8d%e6%98%af%e5%a4%a2-%e4%b8%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=29552","title":{"rendered":"2050\u64fa\u812b\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u4e0d\u662f\u5922 (\u4e0b)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>\u25a0\u4eba\u985e\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u57282050\u5e74\u5b8c\u5168\u64fa\u812b\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5149\u666f\u5462\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-29557\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/09150.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"328\" \/>\u64b0\u6587\uff5c<\/strong>\u65b9\u7a0b\u6bc5<\/p>\n<p>\u5728<a href=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=29551\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u672c\u7cfb\u5217(\u4e0a)<\/a>\u66fe\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u6b64\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u91dd\u5c0d\u7684139\u500b\u570b\u5bb6(\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5305\u542b\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528)\u57282012\u5e74\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u70ba12\u5146\u74e6(12TW)\uff0c\u4f9d\u7167\u7576\u4eca\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u52302050\u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u6703\u6210\u9577\u81f320\u5146\u74e6(20TW)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u901920\u5146\u74e6(20TW)\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u5bb6\u7528\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u7528\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u624d\u7368\u6709\u7684\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u958b\u63a1\u3001\u8655\u7406\u53ca\u904b\u9001\uff0c\u706b\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u6d6a\u8cbb\u6389\u7684\u71b1\u80fd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u80fd\u7701\u4e0b\u958b\u63a1\u6216\u904b\u9001\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u98a8\u529b\u3001\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u90fd\u662f\u5c31\u5730\u53d6\u6750\u3002\u5929\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u6d6a\u8cbb\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u8a66\u60f3\u706b\u529b\u767c\u96fb\uff0c\u7576\u71c3\u71d2\u7164\u7926\u6642\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u71b1\u80fd\u90fd\u662f\u591a\u7522\u751f\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\uff0c\u767c\u96fb\u88dd\u7f6e\u6548\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u9054\u5230100%\uff0c\u7121\u5f62\u4e2d\u7522\u751f\u8a31\u591a\u6d6a\u8cbb\uff1b\u4f46\u98a8\u529b\u6216\u592a\u967d\u80fd\uff0c\u767c\u96fb\u6548\u7387\u5c31\u7b97\u518d\u4f4e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u984d\u5916\u591a\u7522\u751f\u5ee2\u71b1\u6216\u6392\u653e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u672c\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u5982\u679c2050\u5e74\u80fd\u5920100%\u4f7f\u7528\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u9810\u4f30\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u6703\u5f9e20\u5146\u74e6(20TW)\u6e1b\u523011.8\u5146\u74e6(11.84TW)\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u751a\u81f3\u6bd42012\u5e74\u9084\u662f\u4ee5\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u70ba\u4e3b\u529b\u7684\u767c\u96fb\u6a21\u5f0f\u9084\u8981\u4f4e\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u77e5\u5149\u662f\u53d6\u4ee3\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u6d6a\u8cbb\u6389\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b5\u92b7\u672a\u4f86\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u901911.8\u5146\u74e6\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u6703\u662f\u7531\u54ea\u4e9b\u4f86\u6e90\u63d0\u4f9b\u5462\uff1f\u6839\u64da\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u8d85\u904e55%\u4f86\u81ea\u6211\u5011\u982d\u4e0a\u7684\u592a\u967d\u3002\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u96fb\u5ee0\u5c07\u4f9b\u61c921.36%\u3001\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb9.72%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5169\u8005\u9700\u8981\u571f\u5730\uff0c\u4e14\u96fb\u5ee0\u767c\u96fb\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u984d\u5916\u5efa\u9020\u8f38\u96fb\u8a2d\u5099\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u5f9e\u81ea\u5bb6\u6216\u9644\u8fd1\u5c4b\u9802\u767c\u96fb\u66f4\u7b26\u5408\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u61c9\uff0c2050\u5e74\u5c07\u670914.89%\u4f86\u81ea\u81ea\u5bb6\u5c4b\u9802\uff1b11.58%\u4f86\u81ea\u516c\u90e8\u9580\u6216\u5546\u696d\u5efa\u7bc9\u7684\u5c4b\u9802\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u80fd\u5927\u91cf\u4f9b\u61c9\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u70ba\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\uff0c2050\u5e74\u5c07\u6703\u670923.52%\u4f86\u81ea\u9678\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u300113.62%\u4f86\u81ea\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u3002\u5176\u9918\u9084\u5305\u62ec4%\u4f86\u81ea\u6c34\u529b\u30010.64%\u4f86\u81ea\u6f6e\u6c50\u53ca\u6ce2\u6d6a\u30010.67%\u4f86\u81ea\u5730\u71b1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5e0c\u671b\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u4ee3\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7522\u751f\u7684\u6c59\u67d3\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u4e5f\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u82e5\u662f2050\u5e74\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u5920100%\u4f7f\u7528\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5149\u662f\u9632\u6cbb\u7a7a\u6c59\u7684\u82b1\u8cbb\u5c31\u80fd\u7701\u4e0b23\u5146\u7f8e\u91d1(2013\u5e74\u5e63\u503c)\uff1b\u61c9\u4ed8\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u8cbb\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7701\u4e0b28.5\u5146\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u767c\u96fb\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5275\u90202430\u842c\u500b\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703(\u4f46\u672a\u63d0\u53ca\u77f3\u5316\u80fd\u6e90\u696d\u6703\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d88\u5931)\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u73fe\u4eca\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u7686\u4f86\u81ea\u7279\u5b9a\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u7576\u7522\u6cb9\u570b\u6216\u7522\u7164\u570b\u653f\u5c40\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u6642\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u98a8\u529b\u6216\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u8f03\u70ba\u5206\u6563\uff0c\u4e0d\u9650\u5b9a\u5728\u67d0\u5e7e\u500b\u7279\u5b9a\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e5f\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u5c0f\u3002\u5728Youtube\u4e0a\u8ad6\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u7c21\u55ae\u7e3d\u7d50\u4e86\u9019\u9805<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?time_continue=1&amp;v=UiBMklgawDA)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c<\/a>\uff0c\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u4e0d\u59a8\u9ede\u9032\u53bb\u770b\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u770b\u4e86\u8ad6\u6587\u5c0d\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u8b80\u8005\u662f\u5426\u5f88\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u77e5\u9053\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u600e\u9ebc\u9810\u6e2c\u53f0\u7063\u57282050\u5e74\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u5462\uff1f\u9019\u9805\u8a08\u756b\u4e5f\u91dd\u5c0d\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u9032\u884c\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u8a08\u7b97\u53f0\u7063\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\u6700\u6709\u6f5b\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u662f\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\uff0c\u5c07\u4f5438%\uff0c\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u96fb\u5ee0\u5c07\u4f5426.6%\uff0c\u5730\u71b1\u4e5f\u4f54\u4e8627.2%(\u898b\u5716)\u3002\u800c\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u6709\u6f5b\u529b\u7684\u6f6e\u6c50\u767c\u96fb\u5247\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u3002\u5728\u5927\u5bb6\u4e00\u5929\u5230\u665a\u5435\u6838\u96fb\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u61c9\u8a72\u591a\u95dc\u5fc3\u4e00\u4e0b\u6211\u5011\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u6f5b\u80fd\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u672c\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\u8a8d\u70ba2050\u5e74100%\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0d\u662f\u5922\uff0c\u5c31\u6280\u8853\u4e0a\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u4f86\u8aaa\u78ba\u5be6\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u4f46\u4e16\u754c\u7121\u6cd5\u9032\u6b65\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e00\u5411\u4e0d\u662f\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u767c\u5c55\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6709\u4e00\u7fa4\u638c\u63e1\u80fd\u6e90\u547d\u8108\u7684\u77f3\u5316\u696d\u8005\u5c07\u5931\u53bb\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u4e00\u8f29\u5b50\u5728\u77f3\u5316\u696d\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u52de\u5de5\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6c38\u9060\u5931\u53bb\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5728\u6280\u8853\u8f49\u578b\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u7fd2\u5f97\u65b0\u6280\u8853\u7684\u4eba\u4fbf\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u843d\u5165\u4e09\u9910\u7121\u4ee5\u70ba\u7e7c\u7684\u8ca7\u7aae\u9ed1\u6d1e\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u9762\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u6587\uff1a<\/strong>Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Zack AF Bauer, Savannah C. Goodman, William E. Chapman, Mary A. Cameron, Cedric Bozonnat et al. \"100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World.\" Joule (2017).<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Guillaume Bazouin, Zack AF Bauer, Christa C. Heavey, Emma Fisher, Sean B. Morris, Diniana JY Piekutowski, Taylor A. Vencill, and Tim W. Yeskoo. \"100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States.\"\u00a0<em>Energy &amp; Environmental Science<\/em>8, no. 7 (2015): 2093-2117.<\/li>\n<li>Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, and Bethany A. Frew. \"Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes.\"\u00a0<em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>112, no. 49 (2015): 15060-15065.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greentechmedia.com\/articles\/read\/what-does-utility-scale-solar-really-mean\">What Does \u2018Utility-Scale Solar\u2019 Really Mean?<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Cell Press. \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2017\/08\/170823121339.htm\">How 139 countries could be powered by 100 percent wind, water, and solar energy by 2050.<\/a>\" ScienceDaily. (accessed August 29, 2017).<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/\u805a\u5149\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u70ed\u53d1\u7535\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>--<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u65b9\u7a0b\u6bc5 \u79d1\u6559\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7279\u7d04\u5beb\u624b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e8b\u79d1\u666e\u6587\u7ae0\u5beb\u4f5c\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/line.me\/R\/ti\/p\/%40fcx6182w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/scdn.line-apps.com\/n\/line_add_friends\/btn\/zh-Hant.png\" alt=\"\u52a0\u5165\u597d\u53cb\" width=\"212\" height=\"36\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u25a0\u4eba\u985e\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u57282050\u5e74\u5b8c\u5168\u64fa\u812b\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5149\u666f\u5462\uff1f\u5728\u672c\u7cfb\u5217(\u4e0a)\u66fe\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u6b64\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u91dd\u5c0d\u7684139\u500b\u570b\u5bb6(\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5305\u542b\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528)\u57282012\u5e74\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u70ba12\u5146\u74e6(12TW)\uff0c\u4f9d\u7167\u7576\u4eca\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u52302050\u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u6703\u6210\u9577\u81f320\u5146\u74e6(20TW)\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":29558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[191,1023,3293],"tags":[1269,3588,2388,361,3589],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/09152.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29552"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29552"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29552\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31870,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29552\/revisions\/31870"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}