{"id":29551,"date":"2017-10-03T00:27:24","date_gmt":"2017-10-02T16:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=29551"},"modified":"2018-07-29T12:23:51","modified_gmt":"2018-07-29T04:23:51","slug":"2050%e6%93%ba%e8%84%ab%e7%9f%b3%e5%8c%96%e7%87%83%e6%96%99%e4%b8%8d%e6%98%af%e5%a4%a2-%e4%b8%8a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=29551","title":{"rendered":"2050\u64fa\u812b\u77f3\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u4e0d\u662f\u5922 (\u4e0a)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
\u00a0(top left) By SteKrueBe (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 ;\u00a0(top middle) By Leaflet (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 ];(top right)\u00a9 T\u00farelio (via Wikimedia-Commons), 2007 ;\u00a0(bottom left) By afloresm (SOLUCAR PS10) [CC BY 2.0 ];\u00a0(bottom right) By Sakaori (Own work) CC BY-SA 3.0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\u25a0\u4f86\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u53f2\u4e39\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u3001\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b78\u67cf\u514b\u840a\u5206\u6821\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u67cf\u6797\u5de5\u696d\u5927\u5b78\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e39\u9ea5\u5967\u80e1\u65af\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u65e5\u524d\u5728\u00a0Joule\u00a0<\/em>\u671f\u520a\u767c\u8868\u4e00\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u82e5\u662f2050\u5e74\u5168\u4eba\u985e\u80fd100%\u4f7f\u7528\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u5149\u666f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u64b0\u6587\uff5c<\/strong>\u65b9\u7a0b\u6bc5<\/p>\n

\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u597d\u50cf\u6c38\u9060\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u5922\uff0c\u756b\u9762\u5f88\u7f8e\uff0c\u537b\u6c38\u9060\u9054\u4e0d\u5230\u3002\u6bcf\u6bcf\u5230\u6c23\u5019\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6703\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u9818\u8896\u9f4a\u805a\u4e00\u5802\u5927\u62dc\u62dc\uff0c\u912d\u91cd\u5ba3\u793a\u8981\u9054\u6210\u67d0\u67d0\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u518d\u62cd\u5f35\u5718\u9ad4\u7167\u5c31\u529f\u5fb7\u5713\u6eff\u4e86\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6211\u5011\u7d04\u7565\u4e86\u89e3\u6c23\u5019\u5cf0\u6703\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u5c0d\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u537b\u6a21\u6a21\u7cca\u7cca\uff0c\u5c0d\u5176\u5167\u5bb9\u53ca\u767c\u96fb\u6f5b\u529b\u4e5f\u4e00\u77e5\u534a\u89e3\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u540d\u70ba\u300a100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World\u300b\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6839\u64da\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684135\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u79d1\u6280\u6c34\u5e73\u9032\u884c\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6280\u8853\u767c\u5c55\u8def\u7dda\u5716\u30022012\u5e74\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u7e3d\u91cf\u7d04\u70ba12\u5146\u74e6(12TW, 1TW=1012<\/sup>W)\uff0c\u4f46\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u53ea\u4f54\u5176\u4e2d\u76845.6%\uff0c\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u57282050\u5e74\u88dc\u8db3\u9019\u500b\u7f3a\u53e3\u5462\uff1f\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u7c21\u55ae\u4ecb\u7d39\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u8b93\u8b80\u8005\u5011\u80fd\u5c0d\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u8a8d\u8b58\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5305\u62ecWWS\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u98a8(Wind)\u3001\u6c34(Water)\u53ca\u5149(Sunlight)\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u6e1b\u4f4e\u4e8c\u6a23\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f5c\u8005\u4e26\u672a\u8996\u751f\u8cea\u71c3\u6599(Biofuel)\u70ba\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\uff1b\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6838\u80fd\u96d6\u7136\u4e0d\u6392\u653e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u9ad8\u4e14\u6838\u5ee2\u6599\u7684\u5b58\u653e\u9817\u5177\u722d\u8b70\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bcWWS\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u53c8\u5305\u542b\u54ea\u4e9b\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u5340\u767c\u5c55\u8f03\u70ba\u9069\u5408\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

1. \u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

(1)\u9678\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb (Onshore Wind)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9678\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u9678\u5730\u4e0a\u8a2d\u7f6e\u50cf\u98a8\u8eca\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u6a5f\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u578b\u7684\u767c\u96fb\u9069\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u7247\u5e73\u5766\u7684\u5730\u5f62\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u5317\u7f8e\u5927\u5e73\u539f\u3001\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u6c99\u6f20\u3001\u6208\u58c1\u6c99\u6f20\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\u3001\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u5357\u90e8\u53ca\u5357\u975e\u7b49\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n

(2)\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb (Offshore Wind)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u5247\u662f\u8a2d\u7f6e\u5728\u6c34\u4e0a\u7684\u96e2\u5cb8\u767c\u96fb\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u6a5f\u4e26\u4e0d\u5efa\u9020\u5728\u9678\u5730\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9760\u8fd1\u9678\u5730\u7684\u5927\u9678\u68da\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u7684\u98a8\u901f\u6703\u6bd4\u8def\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u67b6\u8a2d\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u9ad8\u3002\u9069\u5408\u767c\u5c55\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5317\u7f8e\u6d32\u7684\u6771\u897f\u5169\u5cb8\u3001\u4e94\u5927\u6e56\u5340\u3001\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u5317\u6d77\u3001\u6b50\u4e9e\u5927\u9678\u6771\u897f\u5169\u5074\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u9084\u5305\u62ec\u79d8\u9b6f\u3001\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\u3001\u5357\u975e\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u53ca\u897f\u975e\u5916\u6d77\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u4ee5\u9678\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c2015\u5e74\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7e3d\u91cf\u7d04\u70ba4200\u5104\u74e6 (420 GW, 1GW=109<\/sup>W)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u53ea\u6709120\u5104\u74e6(12GW)\uff0c\u5360\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7e3d\u91cf\u4e0d\u52303%\u3002\u800c\u6700\u81f4\u529b\u767c\u5c55\u65bc\u96e2\u5cb8\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u82f1\u570b\uff0c2015\u7684\u7e3d\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u70ba50\u5104\u74e6(5GW)\u3002<\/p>\n

2. \u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

(1)\u5c4b\u9802\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f (rooftop solar PV panels)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u5c4b\u9802\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u5373\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4f4f\u5b85\u6216\u662f\u5546\u696d\u5efa\u7bc9\u5927\u6a13\u7684\u5c4b\u9802\u92ea\u8a2d\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u767c\u96fb\u5bb9\u91cf(capacity)\u4e0d\u9ad8(\u5bb6\u7528\u5927\u7d045\u5343\u74e6\uff0c\u5546\u696d\u6216\u516c\u90e8\u9580\u5efa\u7bc9\u7d04\u70ba10\u842c\u74e6)\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5c4b\u9802\u92ea\u8a2d\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u984d\u5916\u8cfc\u8cb7\u571f\u5730\uff0c\u9069\u5408\u5730\u50f9\u6602\u8cb4\u5bf8\u571f\u5bf8\u91d1\u7684\u5730\u5340\u3002<\/p>\n

(2)\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\u5ee0 (utility-scale PV plants)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\u5ee0\u5373\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u584a\u7279\u5b9a\u5730\u5340\u92ea\u4e0a\u5927\u91cf\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u9032\u884c\u767c\u96fb\uff0c\u767c\u96fb\u5bb9\u91cf\u5927\u65bc500\u842c\u74e6(5MW)\u3002<\/p>\n

(3)\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb(Concentrated solar power, CSP)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u7684\u767c\u96fb\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u539f\u7406\u662f\u5229\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u93e1\u5b50\u5c07\u592a\u967d\u5149\u805a\u7126\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u8655\uff0c\u8a72\u8655\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u805a\u7126\u7522\u751f\u71b1\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u71b1\u80fd\u4f86\u767c\u96fb\u3002(\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u770b\u9019\u5247Youtube\u5f71\u7247<\/a>)\u3002\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb\u96d6\u7136\u767c\u96fb\u80fd\u529b\u5f37\uff0c\u4f46\u5efa\u7f6e\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5176\u539f\u7406\u70ba\u805a\u7126\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u70ba\u96f2\u5c64\u9020\u6210\u5149\u6563\u5c04\u4ee5\u81f4\u7121\u6cd5\u805a\u7126\uff1b\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u5247\u4e0d\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u5929\u4e0a\u6709\u96f2\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u5149\u9054\u5230\u5176\u8868\u9762\u4f9d\u820a\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u96fb\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb\u7684\u9078\u5740\u76f8\u7576\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5728\u96f2\u5c64\u8f03\u5c11\u4e14\u7a7a\u66e0\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u6700\u9069\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u6700\u591a\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c2015\u5e74\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u70ba23\u5104\u74e6(2.3GW)\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u7403\u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u5c07\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a(2015\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba49\u5104\u74e64.9GW)\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u5229\u7528\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u767c\u96fb\uff0c2015\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7e3d\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u7d04\u70ba2254\u5104\u74e6(225.4GW)\u3002\u767c\u96fb\u7e3d\u524d\u4e94\u540d\u7684\u4f9d\u5e8f\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u9019\u5169\u500b\u5927\u570b\u7684\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\u5927\u7d04\u670940%\u4f86\u81ea\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\u5ee0\uff1b\u4f46\u5fb7\u570b\u65e5\u672c\u53ca\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u537b\u662f\u4ee5\u5c4b\u9802\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u677f\u70ba\u4e3b\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u5fb7\u570b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c397\u5104\u74e6(39.7GW)\u7684\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\uff0c\u6709360\u5104\u74e6\u662f\u5f9e\u5c4b\u9802\u4e0a\u4f86(36GW)\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u898b\u5f97\u5fb7\u570b\u63a8\u5c55\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u96fb\u6c60\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

3. \u5176\u4ed6<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

(1)\u5730\u71b1 (Geothermal)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5730\u71b1\u767c\u96fb\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u4e3b\u8981\u70ba\u706b\u5c71\u3001\u6eab\u6cc9\u6216\u662f\u5730\u9762\u5438\u6536\u7684\u592a\u967d\u8f3b\u5c04\u71b1\uff0c\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u98a8\u529b\u53ca\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u5176\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u8f03\u5c11\uff0c2015\u5e74\u7e3d\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u70ba820\u5104\u74e6(82GW)\u3002\u6392\u540d\u524d\u5169\u540d\u7684\u4e0d\u610f\u5916\u662f\u7f8e\u570b(200\u5104\u74e6\uff0c20GW)\u8207\u4e2d\u570b(170\u5104\u74e6\uff0c17GW)\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c\u4e09\u540d\u7684\u662f\u745e\u5178(56\u5104\u74e65.6GW)\u3002<\/p>\n

(2)\u6c34\u529b (Hydropower)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6c34\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u4e2d\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\uff0c2015\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6c34\u529b\u7e3d\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u9054\u52304400\u5104\u74e6(440GW)\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u7403\u7e3d\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u76844%\u3002\u6c34\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u76f8\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6280\u8853\u8f03\u70ba\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u96fb\u529b\u5e7e\u4e4e100%\u4f86\u81ea\u6c34\u529b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u963f\u723e\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9e\u3001\u5df4\u62c9\u572d\u3001\u5c1a\u6bd4\u4e9e\u3001\u5854\u5409\u514b\u53ca\u5c3c\u6cca\u723e\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u6c34\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u6280\u8853\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u4e14\u5730\u9ede\u53d7\u9650\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6210\u9577\u7684\u6f5b\u529b\u9060\u6bd4\u98a8\u529b\u8207\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u5c0f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u985e\u771f\u7684\u8981100%\u64fa\u812b\u77f3\u5316\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u6c34\u529b\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u500b\u597d\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/p>\n

(3)\u6f6e\u6c50 (Tidal)\u53ca\u6ce2\u6d6a\u80fd(Wave)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6f6e\u6c50\u8207\u6ce2\u6d6a\u96d6\u7136\u4e5f\u662f\u4e7e\u6de8\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7406\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5728\u8ad6\u6587\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u91cf\u4e0d\u52300.1%\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u6587\uff1a<\/strong>Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Zack AF Bauer, Savannah C. Goodman, William E. Chapman, Mary A. Cameron, Cedric Bozonnat et al. \"100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World.\" Joule (2017).<\/p>\n

\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Guillaume Bazouin, Zack AF Bauer, Christa C. Heavey, Emma Fisher, Sean B. Morris, Diniana JY Piekutowski, Taylor A. Vencill, and Tim W. Yeskoo. \"100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States.\"\u00a0Energy & Environmental Science<\/em>8, no. 7 (2015): 2093-2117.<\/li>\n
  2. Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, and Bethany A. Frew. \"Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes.\"\u00a0Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>112, no. 49 (2015): 15060-15065.<\/li>\n
  3. What Does \u2018Utility-Scale Solar\u2019 Really Mean?<\/a><\/li>\n
  4. Cell Press. \"How 139 countries could be powered by 100 percent wind, water, and solar energy by 2050.<\/a>\" ScienceDaily. (accessed August 29, 2017).<\/li>\n
  5. \u805a\u5149\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u71b1\u767c\u96fb<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    --<\/strong><\/span>
    \n \u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u65b9\u7a0b\u6bc5 \u79d1\u6559\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7279\u7d04\u5beb\u624b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e8b\u79d1\u666e\u6587\u7ae0\u5beb\u4f5c\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\u52a0\u5165\u597d\u53cb\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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