{"id":24835,"date":"2016-06-17T00:00:12","date_gmt":"2016-06-16T16:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=24835"},"modified":"2018-08-03T14:43:11","modified_gmt":"2018-08-03T06:43:11","slug":"%e3%80%90%e6%8e%a2%e7%b4%a215-8%e3%80%91%e6%b7%b7%e6%b2%8c%e8%a3%a1%e6%9c%89%e4%b8%80%e9%9a%bb%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b5%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=24835","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u63a2\u7d2215-8\u3011\u6df7\u6c8c\u88e1\u6709\u4e00\u96bb\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_24842\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24842\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24842\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/15-8-blackswan-1024x621.jpg\" alt=\"Photo by Bournemouth News \/ Rex Features\" width=\"650\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/15-8-blackswan-1024x621.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/15-8-blackswan-300x182.jpg 300w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/15-8-blackswan-800x486.jpg 800w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/15-8-blackswan-600x364.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24842\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo by Bournemouth News \/ Rex Features<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>\u8b1b\u5e2b\uff5c<\/strong>\u5e2b\u5927\u7269\u7406\u7cfb \u9673\u555f\u660e\u6559\u6388<strong><br 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\u6642\uff0c\u8ce3\u5bb6\u6703\u8ce3\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u80a1\u7968\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc <span class='MathJax_Preview'><img src='https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/latex\/cache\/tex_a117bbc2f69be7446b984f23616a63cc.gif' style='vertical-align: middle; border: none; padding-bottom:2px;' class='tex' alt=\"\" \/><\/span><script type='math\/tex'><\/script> \u3002\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u672c\u5b63\u7b2c2\u6b21\u8b1b\u5ea7\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6df7\u6c8c\u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1a<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span class='MathJax_Preview'><img src='https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/latex\/cache\/tex_ddc053ad5a86d50e3430167828349e9a.gif' style='vertical-align: middle; border: none; padding-bottom:2px;' class='tex' alt=\"\" \/><\/span><script type='math\/tex'><\/script> 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\/>\n\u900f\u904e\u7d71\u8a08\u80fd\u770b\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6df7\u6c8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u80fd\u9069\u7528\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5716\u4e00\u986f\u793a1950\u52302014\u5e74\u9593S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u4e4d\u770b\u4e4b\u4e0b\u5176\u9707\u76ea\u770b\u4f3c\u4e00\u500b\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u904e\u7a0b\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5f8c\u8005\u5177\u6709\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027(determinism)\u3002\u5716\u4e8c\u6bd4\u8f03\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\u548cS&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u5169\u9ede\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u767c\u751f\u6b21\u6578\u6bd4\u63cf\u8ff0\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u5e38\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u9ad8\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5728\u9060\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u5169\u7aef\u7684\u5c3e\u5df4\u6bd4\u4e00\u822c\u9084\u8981\u539a\uff0c\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300e\u80a5\u5c3e\u300f\u6216\u662f\u300e\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300f\u3002\u9019\u500b\u7d71\u8a08\u8aaa\u660e\u6975\u7aef\u60c5\u5f62\u767c\u751f\u7684\u983b\u7387\u78ba\u5be6\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u7684\u9084\u8981\u9ad8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u63a8\u6e2c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6f32\u8dcc\u4e26\u975e\u55ae\u7d14\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u647b\u96dc\u4e86\u67d0\u7a2e\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u6a5f\u5236\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8ad6\u80fd\u548c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6548\u61c9\u76f8\u5bb9\uff0c\u9019\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u6df7\u6c8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u53c8\u66f4\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u9ede\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u25cf\u5927\u6578\u64da\u7684\u6307\u5f15<\/strong><\/span><br 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id=\"attachment_24839\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24839\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-24839\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-1-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\u57161\uff0c1950\u5e74-2014\u5e74S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u8b8a\u5316\" width=\"500\" height=\"284\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-1-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-1-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-1.png 1425w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24839\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u57161\uff0c1950\u5e74-2014\u5e74S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u8b8a\u5316<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_24840\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24840\" style=\"width: 713px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24840\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-2.png\" alt=\"\u57162\uff0c1928\u5e74-1989\u5e74S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u5e73\u6ed1\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\u70ba\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\uff1b\u66f2\u6298\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\u70ba\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u5169\u500b\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u5dee\u7570\u3002\" width=\"713\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-2.png 713w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/158-2-300x107.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 713px) 100vw, 713px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24840\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u57162\uff0c1928\u5e74-1989\u5e74S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u5e73\u6ed1\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\u70ba\u96a8\u6a5f\u904e\u7a0b\uff1b\u66f2\u6298\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\u70ba\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u5169\u500b\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u5dee\u7570\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #000000;\">--<br \/>\n\u672c\u6587\u6574\u7406\u81ea\uff1a105\/6\/4\u00a0<\/strong><strong style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7531\u9673\u555f\u660e\u6559\u6388\u5728\u81fa\u5927\u601d\u4eae\u9928\u570b\u969b\u6703\u8b70\u5ef3\u6240\u4e3b\u8b1b\u4e4b\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=enqsyaXr4uw&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\">\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf<\/a>\u300d\u6f14\u8b1b\u5167\u5bb9\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/line.me\/R\/ti\/p\/%40fcx6182w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/scdn.line-apps.com\/n\/line_add_friends\/btn\/zh-Hant.png\" alt=\"\u52a0\u5165\u597d\u53cb\" width=\"212\" height=\"36\" border=\"0\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8b1b\u5e2b\uff5c\u5e2b\u5927\u7269\u7406\u7cfb \u9673\u555f\u660e\u6559\u6388 \u64b0\u6587\uff5c\u9673\u5955<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":24842,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3293,2413],"tags":[2414,2629,2478,2424,316],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/15-8-blackswan.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24835"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24835"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32574,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24835\/revisions\/32574"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24842"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}