{"id":24040,"date":"2016-03-09T11:33:53","date_gmt":"2016-03-09T03:33:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=24040"},"modified":"2018-08-03T14:28:54","modified_gmt":"2018-08-03T06:28:54","slug":"%e3%80%90%e7%94%9f%e6%b4%bb%e7%b5%b1%e8%a8%88%e3%80%91imdb%e5%b9%ab%e4%bd%a0%e9%81%b8%e5%a5%bd%e7%89%87-bayesian-estimator%e7%9a%84%e7%9b%b4%e8%a6%ba%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=24040","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u751f\u6d3b\u7d71\u8a08\u3011IMDb\u5e6b\u4f60\u9078\u597d\u7247-Bayesian estimator\u7684\u76f4\u89ba\u89e3\u91cb"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_24043\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24043\" style=\"width: 684px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24043\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/476575303.jpg\" alt=\"Jason Merritt\/Getty Images \" width=\"684\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/476575303.jpg 684w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/476575303-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/476575303-600x450.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24043\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jason Merritt\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>\u64b0\u6587\uff5c<\/strong>\u738b\u6085<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u770b\u4e00\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f9d\u81ea\u5df1\u597d\u60e1\u4e0a\u7db2\u8a55\u50f9\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u554f\u5377\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u8a55\u50f9\u65b9\u5f0f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4ee5\u7b49\u7d1a0-10\u9032\u884c\u8a55\u50f9\uff0c0\u8868\u793a\u6700\u4e0d\u559c\u611b\uff0c10\u8868\u793a\u6700\u559c\u611b (\u6709\u6642\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u4e0a\u5c0f\u6578\u9ede)\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u7b49\u7d1a\u5340\u5206\u96fb\u5f71\u6392\u540d\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u554f\u984c\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u53ea\u7528\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u8868\u9054\u773e\u4eba\u5c0d\u4e00\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u800c\u4e0d\u907a\u6f0f\u592a\u591a\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff1f\u76f4\u89ba\u7684\u60f3\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5427\u3002\u5c07\u5927\u5bb6\u5c0d\u4e00\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u5e73\u5747\u8d77\u4f86\u5c31\u884c\u4e86\u3002\u4f46\u6a23\u672c\u5c11\u6642\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u6975\u7aef\u503c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u800c\u5931\u771f\u3002\u518d\u4e0d\u7136\u5c31\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c55\u73fe\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u7b49\u7d1a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8f15\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u6975\u7aef\u8a55\u50f9\u5f71\u97ff\u800c\u8b8a\u52d5 (\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u6709\u500b\u5c08\u696d\u8853\u8a9e\u300e\u7a69\u5065\u300f\u85c9\u4ee5\u5f62\u5bb9\u6b64\u73fe\u8c61)\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u6548\u7387 (efficiency) \u8f03\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4f86\u5f97\u5dee\u3002\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u5247\u4f30\u8a08\u503c\u7684\u8b8a\u7570\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4f30\u8a08\u503c\u8f03\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002IMDb (Internet Movie Database) \u7684<a href=\"http:\/\/www.imdb.com\/chart\/top\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Top 250\u6392\u540d<\/a>\uff0c\u63a1\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6578\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\uff0c\u800c\u662fBayesian estimator (IMDb\u7a31\u4e4b\u70batrue Bayesian estimate\uff0c\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u65b9\u5f0f)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>IMDb Top 250\u4f7f\u7528Bayesian estimator\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<!--more--><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24041\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/0309.png\" alt=\"0309\" width=\"335\" height=\"59\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/0309.png 335w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/0309-300x52.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cWR\u662f\u900f\u904eBayesian estimator\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u773e\u4eba\u5c0d\u8a72\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u3001R\u70ba\u6b64\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u5e73\u5747\u3001C\u662f\u6240\u6709\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u5e73\u5747 (\u76ee\u524d\u70ba7.0)\u3001v\u662f\u5c0d\u8a72\u96fb\u5f71\u9032\u884c\u8a55\u50f9\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u3001m\u662f\u524d250\u540d\u96fb\u5f71\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u9054\u5230\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u4eba\u6578 (\u76ee\u524d\u70ba25,000)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u64cd\u4f5c\u8d77\u4f86\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u7a2e\u5ee3\u7fa9\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u9ede\u624b\u8173\u3002\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624b\u8173\u5462\uff1f\u4e00\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u9032\u5165IMDb Top 250\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6703\u904e\u6ffe\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u8a55\u5206\uff0c\u4e14\u9810\u8a2d\u670925,000\u7684\u5047\u4eba\u7d66\u4e867.0\u7684\u8a55\u50f9 (m = 25,000\uff0cC = 7.0)\uff0c\u5f9e\u9019\u908a\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5f9e0\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f9e\u6240\u6709\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u671f\u671b\u503c 7.0 \u958b\u59cb\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u4f86\uff0cIMDb Top 250 \u4e00\u5171\u67b6\u8a2d\u4e86\u96d9\u91cd\u628a\u95dc\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u8a55\u50f9\u4eba\u6578\u5728\u8db3\u5920\u591a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u624d\u80fd\u9032\u5165\u6392\u540d\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u5247\u662f\u9032\u5165\u6392\u540d\u5f8c\u6703\u518d\u53d7\u523025,000\u500b\u5047\u4eba\u7684\u4e2d\u9593\u8a55\u5206\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u500b\u628a\u95dc\u90fd\u76f4\u63a5\u4f7f\u5f97\u5c11\u6578\u6975\u7aef\u503c\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u9020\u6210\u5f71\u97ff\u800c\u5931\u771f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9053\u628a\u95dc\u986f\u793a\u4e86Bayesian estimator\u7684\u512a\u9ede\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u4e0d\u6613\u53d7\u6975\u7aef\u503c\u5f71\u97ff<\/li>\n<li>\u7531\u65bc\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u50cf\u5ee3\u7fa9\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0cBayesian estimator\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u6548\u7387\u8f03\u597d\u7684\u6027\u8cea<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u70ba\u7dad\u8b77\u8a55\u50f9\u7684\u5ba2\u89c0\u6027\uff0cIMDb \u4e5f\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e86\u8a55\u50f9\u6b21\u6578\u8db3\u5920\u591a\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u8a55\u5206\u624d\u6703\u88ab\u7d0d\u5165\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u7be9\u9078\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u78ba\u4fdd\u4e86\u8a55\u50f9\u7684\u516c\u6b63\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e0d\u8db3\u6642\uff0c\u773e\u4eba\u5c0d\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u7167\u4ee5\u5f80\u6240\u6709\u96fb\u5f71\u5e73\u5747\u8a55\u50f97.0\u9032\u884c\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u9019\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u5148\u9a57\u77e5\u8b58 (prior knowledge)\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u7684\u63a8\u9032\uff0c\u89c0\u773e\u5c0d\u65bc\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u771f\u5be6\u611f\u53d7\u5c07\u6162\u6162\u4fee\u6b63\u5148\u9a57\u77e5\u8b58\u800c\u4e3b\u5bb0\u5e73\u5747\u8a55\u50f9\u7684\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u7576IMDb\u8a55\u50f9\u8db3\u5920\u591a\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u8a55\u50f9\u5c31\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u89c0\u773e\u7684\u771f\u5be6\u8a55\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u4f7f\u7528Bayesian estimator\u597d\u8655\u591a\u591a\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c0f\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u521d\u59cb\u8a55\u50f9\u662f\u4f9d\u7167\u4ee5\u5f80\u5e73\u5747\u8a55\u50f9\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u7576\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5f8c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u89c0\u773e\u8a55\u50f9\u8d85\u904e\u5e73\u5747\u6642\uff0c\u6b64\u8a55\u50f9\u4ecd\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u539f\u59cb\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u62c9\u626f\u7522\u751f\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\uff0c\u82e5\u5927\u591a\u6578\u89c0\u773e\u8a55\u50f9\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u52a0\u6b0a\u5f8c\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u4e5f\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u539f\u59cb\u5e73\u5747\u5f80\u4e0a\u62c9\u626f\u800c\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002\u63db\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u60f3\uff0c\u5f80\u539f\u59cb\u5e73\u5747\u62c9\u626f\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u4f5c\u70ba\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u9020\u6210\u50cf\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u704c\u7968\u9019\u6a23\u592a\u8a87\u5f35\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86IMDb\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u77e5\u540d\u684c\u4e0a\u904a\u6232\u8ad6\u58c7<a href=\"https:\/\/boardgamegeek.com\/browse\/boardgame\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Board Game Geek<\/a> \u00a0\u4e5f\u662f\u4f7f\u7528Bayesian estimator\u4f86\u9032\u884c\u904a\u6232\u8a55\u50f9\u6574\u5408\u3002\u4e0b\u6b21\u770b\u5230IMDb\u3001Board Game Geek\u3001\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u4f7f\u7528Bayesian estimator\u70ba\u6392\u540d\u4f9d\u64da\u7684\u7db2\u7ad9\u6642\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u518d\u70ba\u8a08\u7b97\u6216\u662f\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u60d1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53c3\u8003\u7db2\u7ad9\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.imdb.com\/\">http:\/\/www.imdb.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>--<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u738b\u6085\u3000\u81fa\u5927\u6d41\u75c5\u6240\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u3002\u7acb\u5fd7\u4ee5\u7d71\u8a08\u5728\u6d41\u75c5\u754c\u6490\u51fa\u4e00\u7247\u5929\uff0c\u71b1\u611b\u684c\u904a\uff0c\u559c\u6b61\u5f9e\u684c\u904a\u4e2d\u601d\u8003\u6230\u7565... \u9084\u6709\u4eba\u751f\u5927\u9053\u7406\uff01\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/line.me\/R\/ti\/p\/%40fcx6182w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/scdn.line-apps.com\/n\/line_add_friends\/btn\/zh-Hant.png\" alt=\"\u52a0\u5165\u597d\u53cb\" width=\"212\" height=\"36\" border=\"0\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u64b0\u6587\uff5c\u738b\u6085 \u6211\u5011\u770b\u4e00\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f9d\u81ea\u5df1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":24043,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3293,148],"tags":[2450,2449,2452,2451,373,2454,2453],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/476575303.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24040"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24040"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24040\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32506,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24040\/revisions\/32506"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}