{"id":23983,"date":"2016-04-18T00:38:59","date_gmt":"2016-04-17T16:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=23983"},"modified":"2018-08-03T14:33:12","modified_gmt":"2018-08-03T06:33:12","slug":"%e3%80%90%e7%a5%9e%e7%a7%98%e5%ae%87%e5%ae%99%e3%80%91%e6%88%91%e5%80%91%e6%98%af%e5%94%af%e4%b8%80%e7%9a%84%e5%ae%87%e5%ae%99%e6%96%87%e6%98%8e%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=23983","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u795e\u79d8\u5b87\u5b99\u3011\u6211\u5011\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u6587\u660e\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u25a0\u5169\u4f4d\u7f8e\u570b\u5929\u6587\u751f\u7269\u5b78\u5bb6\u91cd\u65b0\u6aa2\u8996\u4e86\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f(Drake equation)\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u7a0d\u4f5c\u4fee\u6539\u5916\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee3\u5165\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u77e5\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5404\u9805\u53c3\u6578\u3002\u6839\u64da\u9019\u4e9b\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u51fa\u73fe\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u660e\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"CC0
\u5716\u7247\uff1aCC0 Public Domain<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u64b0\u6587\uff5c<\/strong>\u9673\u52c1\u8c6a<\/p>\n

\u5728\u597d\u840a\u5862\u96fb\u5f71\u88e1\u9762\uff0c\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u5e74\u5e74\u9020\u8a2a\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f86\u8a2a\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6beb\u7121\u4f8b\u5916\u90fd\u6703\u628a\u5730\u7403\u70b8\u7684\u4e00\u5718\u4e82\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u597d\u840a\u5862\u7684\u96fb\u5f71\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e5f\u90fd\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u5f71\u7247\u6216\u7167\u7247\u5ba3\u7a31\u4ed6\u5011\u62cd\u5230\u4e86\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u9020\u8a2a\u5730\u7403\u3002\u6211\u5011\u7121\u5f9e\u5224\u65b7\u9019\u4e9b\u5f71\u7247\u662f\u771f\u662f\u5047\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u5fc3\u4e2d\u5927\u6982\u90fd\u6703\u6709\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u6211\u5011\u6703\u662f\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u751f\u547d\u55ce\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u751f\u547d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6703\u6709\u8ddf\u6211\u5011\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4e5f\u5145\u6eff\u4e86\u597d\u5947\u3002\u5c0d\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u6700\u597d\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u500b\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f8e\u570b\u5929\u6587\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6Frank Drake\u57281961\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f\u3002\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u9280\u6cb3\u7cfb\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u8207\u6211\u5011\u63a5\u89f8\u7684\u5916\u661f\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u3002\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5beb\u70ba<\/p>\n

N = R x (f_p) x (n_e) x (f_l) x (f_i) x (f_c) x L<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u4e00\u5171\u6709\u4e03\u500b\u8b8a\u56e0\u548c\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f
\n0) N: \u9280\u6cb3\u7cfb\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u8207\u6211\u5011\u63a5\u89f8\u7684\u5916\u661f\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u7684\u6578\u91cf
\n1) R: \u9280\u6cb3\u7cfb\u5167\u6046\u661f\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u901f\u7387
\n2) f_p: \u6046\u661f\u7cfb\u7d71\u5b58\u5728\u884c\u661f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387
\n3) n_e: \u6bcf\u500b\u6046\u661f\u5b58\u5728\u6709\u9069\u5408\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u751f\u547d\u7684\u884c\u661f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6578
\n4) f_l: \u7b26\u5408\u4ee5\u4e0a\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u884c\u661f\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u751f\u547d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027
\n5) f_i: \u6f14\u5316\u51fa\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u751f\u7269\u7684\u6a5f\u7387
\n6) f_c: \u9019\u4e9b\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u751f\u7269\u80fd\u5920\u9032\u884c\u901a\u8a0a\u7684\u6a5f\u7387
\n7) L: \u9019\u4e9b\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u671f\u9593<\/p>\n

\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u57281960\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u53d7\u9650\u65bc\u7576\u6642\u79d1\u6280\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6bcf\u500b\u53c3\u6578\u90fd\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u662f\u7528\u731c\u7684\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4f30\u7b97\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u6216\u662f\u60b2\u89c0\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ddf\u6211\u5011\u63a5\u89f8\u5230\u7684\u5916\u661f\u6587\u660e\u7684\u6578\u91cf\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u767e\u842c\u5230\u9060\u5c0f\u65bc\u4e00\u90fd\u6709\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u8aaa\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6709\u500b\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u537b\u6c92\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5e6b\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81ea\u5f9e1960\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u5404\u7a2e\u89c0\u6e2c\u6280\u8853\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f\u88e1\u9762\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u9805\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u66f4\u7cbe\u78ba\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6046\u661f\u7cfb\u7d71\u5b58\u5728\u884c\u661f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u518d\u767c\u73fe\u7cfb\u5916\u884c\u661f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u9805\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u4fbf\u66f4\u6709\u89c0\u6e2c\u8b49\u64da\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u76f8\u7576\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8a31\u591a\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u5920\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u8207\u63a8\u8ad6\u3002University of Rochester\u7684Adam Frank\u53caUniversity of Washington\u7684Woody Sullivan\u6700\u8fd1\u4fbf\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u5f9e\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u60f3\u554f\u7684\u662f\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u5b87\u5b99\u8a95\u751f\u5230\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u50cf\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u8ddf\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f\u60f3\u554f\u7684\u554f\u984c\u300c\u9280\u6cb3\u7cfb\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u8207\u6211\u5011\u63a5\u89f8\u7684\u5916\u661f\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u300d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u50cf\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u537b\u6709\u95dc\u9375\u6027\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002Frank\u8ddfSullivan\u7684\u554f\u984c\u4e26\u4e0d\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u80fd\u5920\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5916\u661f\u6587\u660e\u806f\u7d61\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u8003\u616e\u4ed6\u5011\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u904e\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8981\u6c42\u986f\u7136\u6bd4\u5fb7\u96f7\u514b\u516c\u5f0f\u8981\u4f86\u7684\u5bec\u7684\u591a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u76e1\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u4ed6\u5011\u5c31\u4e0d\u7528\u8003\u616e\u6046\u661f\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u901f\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u53ea\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5df2\u7d93\u8a95\u751f\u7684\u6046\u661f\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u64d4\u5fc3\u9019\u4e9b\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u4e86\u591a\u4e45\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u53ea\u8003\u616e\u9019\u4e9b\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u662f\u5426\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8003\u616e\u904e\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u9069\u5408\u751f\u547d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u884c\u661f\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u751f\u547d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5927\u65bc\u5341\u7684\u5eff\u56db\u6b21\u65b9\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u90a3\u5011\u6211\u5011\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u662f\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u751f\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u76f8\u7576\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5c0f\u6578\u9ede\u5f8c\u9762\u8981\u63a5\u4e0a23\u500b0\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u6709\u7121\u6578\u7684\u6046\u661f\uff0c\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u7684\u78ba\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u6587\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u9ad8\u667a\u6167\u751f\u7269\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u6211\u5011\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u89c0\u6e2c\u5230\u4ed6\u5011\u3002\u6216\u8a31\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u6703\u60f3\u5230\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u5c0b\u627e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u667a\u6167\u6587\u660e\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n

\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u6587<\/strong>
\narxiv.org\/abs\/1510.08837<\/a>\u00a0: A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u95dc\u5831\u5c0e<\/strong>
\nMIT Technology Review 2015\/11\/06: Astrobiologists Revise the Chances of Finding Advanced ET Civilizations<\/a><\/p>\n

--
\n<\/strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u9673\u52c1\u8c6a\u3000\u79d1\u6559\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7279\u7d04\u5beb\u624b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e8b\u79d1\u666e\u6587\u7ae0\u5beb\u4f5c\u30022011\u5e74\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7d10\u7d04\u5dde\u7acb\u77f3\u6eaa\u5927\u5b78(SUNY at Stony Brook)\u53d6\u5f97\u535a\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u984c\u70ba\u76f8\u5c0d\u8ad6\u6027\u91cd\u96e2\u5b50\u78b0\u649e(Relativistic Heavy Ion Collision)\u3002\u9577\u671f\u64d4\u4efb\u4e2d\u6587\u79d1\u5b78\u65b0\u805e\u7db2\u7ad9\u300c\u79d1\u666f\u300d(Sciscape.org)\u7e3d\u7de8\u8f2f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\u52a0\u5165\u597d\u53cb\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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