{"id":16699,"date":"2014-03-10T06:39:01","date_gmt":"2014-03-09T22:39:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=16699"},"modified":"2017-08-01T09:20:20","modified_gmt":"2017-08-01T01:20:20","slug":"%e3%80%90%e7%a4%be%e6%9c%83%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%b8%e3%80%91%e8%87%89%e6%9b%b8%e5%b0%b1%e5%83%8f%e5%82%b3%e6%9f%93%e7%97%85%ef%bc%8c%e4%be%86%e5%be%97%e5%bf%ab%e5%8e%bb%e5%be%97%e4%b9%9f%e5%bf%ab","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=16699","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u3011\u81c9\u66f8\u5c31\u50cf\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff0c\u4f86\u5f97\u5feb\u53bb\u5f97\u4e5f\u5feb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong>\u25a0\u6bcf\u7576\u4f60\u5728\u767e\u7121\u804a\u8cf4\uff0c\u63d0\u4e0d\u8d77\u52c1\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5348\u5f8c\u6642\u5206\uff0c\u4e09\u4e0d\u4e94\u6642\u5c31\u9ede\u958b\u81c9\u66f8\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u66fe\u7d93\u89ba\u5f97\u81c9\u66f8\u771f\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u75c5\uff1f\u666e\u6797\u65af\u9813\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5169\u4f4d\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5927\u6982\u662f\u771f\u7684\u9019\u9ebc\u89ba\u5f97\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7adf\u7136\u7528\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u8ad6\u8b49\uff0c\u81c9\u66f8\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u8def\u6563\u64ad\u51fa\u53bb\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9b\u5982\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\uff1b\u800c\u5c31\u50cf\u6240\u6709\u7684\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u6700\u7d42\u90fd\u6703\u6d88\u5f2d\u4e0b\u4f86\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5927\u81bd\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u81c9\u66f8\u5e7e\u5e74\u5f8c\u5c31\u6703\u6b65\u4e0a Myspace \u7684\u5f8c\u5875\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u6c92\u4eba\u8981\u7528\u7684\u7db2\u8def\u68c4\u5152\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7de8\u8b6f\uff5c<\/strong>\u9ad8\u82f1\u54f2<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16700\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16700\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/sn-facebook_0.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-16700\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/sn-facebook_0.jpg\" alt=\"sn-facebook_0\" width=\"540\" height=\"370\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/sn-facebook_0.jpg 600w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/sn-facebook_0-300x205.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16700\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kerem Yucel\/iStockphoto\/Thinkstock<br \/>Killer cure. An epidemiological model predicts Facebook usage will decline precipitously as people \"recover\" from interest in it.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u7d04\u7ff0\uff0e\u574e\u7d0d\u745e\u62c9 (John Cannarella) \u8ddf\u7d04\u66f8\u4e9e\uff0e\u53f2\u4f69\u5947\u52d2 (Joshua Spechler) \u9019\u5169\u4f4d\u5728\u666e\u6797\u65af\u9813\u5927\u5b78\u4e3b\u4fee\u6a5f\u68b0\u8207\u822a\u592a\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u751f\uff0c\u5728 arXiv \u8ad6\u6587\u9810\u5370\u4f3a\u670d\u5668\u767c\u8868\u4e00\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u81c9\u66f8\u8ddf Myspace 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SIR \u6a21\u578b\uff1a S \u4ee3\u8868\u6613\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff0c I \u4ee3\u8868\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff0c R \u5247\u662f\u4ee3\u8868\u5eb7\u5fa9\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SIR \u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u8a31\u662f\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u88e1\u6700\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u6a21\u578b\u4e86\uff0c\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u6703\u81ea\u5df1\u5eb7\u5fa9\uff0c\u6062\u5fa9\u901f\u7387\u5b8c\u5168\u770b\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u91cf\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u800c\u5b9a\u3002\u574e\u7d0d\u745e\u62c9\u8ddf\u53f2\u4f69\u5947\u52d2\u628a\u6a21\u578b\u7a0d\u5fae\u8abf\u6574\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6839\u64da\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u8def\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u8981\u5f9e\u300c\u81c9\u66f8\u75c5\u300d\u88e1\u5eb7\u5fa9\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u8981\u78b0\u4e0a\u4e00\u500b\u5eb7\u5fa9\u7684\u4eba\uff1b\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4f60\u670b\u53cb\u88e1\u6709\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u958b\u59cb\u4e0d\u73a9\u81c9\u66f8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4f60\u5c31\u6703\u4e00\u76f4\u73a9\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5eb7\u5fa9\u8005\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u6703\u96a8\u8457\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6578\u91cf\u4e58\u4ee5\u5eb7\u5fa9\u8005\u6578\u91cf\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5448\u7b49\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u628a\u9019\u6a21\u578b\u5957\u4e0a\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u4f30\u8a08 Myspace \u8ddf\u81c9\u66f8\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u7db2\u7ad9\u5be6\u969b\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u6578\u91cf\u662f\u5546\u696d\u6a5f\u5bc6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7528\u7684\u6578\u64da\u662f\u9019\u5169\u500b\u7db2\u7ad9\u540d\u7a31\u5728 Google \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u641c\u5c0b\u6b21\u6578\u983b\u7387\u3002\u6539\u7528\u641c\u5c0b\u6b21\u6578\u9084\u6709\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u8655\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u80fd\u5920\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u4ee3\u8868\u7db2\u7ad9\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7db2\u7ad9\u53ef\u80fd\u5e33\u9762\u4e0a\u9084\u4fdd\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u8001\u65e9\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u5c0d\u7db2\u7ad9\u5931\u53bb\u8208\u8da3\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5957\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u6e96\u5730\u8aaa\u660e\u4e86 Myspace \u7684\u8208\u8870\u904e\u7a0b\uff1a\u5b83\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u9054\u5230\u4f7f\u7528\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c\u6bcf\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u4e03\u5343\u4e94\u767e\u591a\u842c\u4eba\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5230\u4e86 2011 \u5e74\u537b\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u4e4f\u4eba\u554f\u6d25\u3002\u81c9\u66f8\u4e5f\u958b\u59cb\u986f\u9732\u51fa\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u8ecc\u8de1\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\u9054\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c 2012 \u5e74\u537b\u958b\u59cb\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9810\u4f30\u81c9\u66f8\u5d29\u76e4\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u6703\u6bd4 Myspace \u9084\u8981\u5287\u70c8\uff1a\u65e9\u5247 2015 \u5e74\uff0c\u665a\u5247 2017 \u5e74\uff0c\u81c9\u66f8\u5c07\u6703\u5931\u53bb\u516b\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a71\u96d6\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5c31\u62cb\u552e\u81c9\u66f8\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u8a00\u4e4b\u904e\u65e9\u3002\u5b89\u5a1c\u5821\u5927\u5b78\u6578\u7406\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u5bb6\u746a\u745e\u838e\uff0e\u827e\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c (Marisa Eisenberg) \u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u6a21\u578b\u592a\u7c21\u55ae\u4e86\uff0c\u9810\u8a2d\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7ad9\u8ddf\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4e00\u6a23\u7e3d\u6703\u5b8c\u86cb\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u65e9\u665a\u5feb\u6162\u7684\u554f\u984c\u800c\u5df2\uff1b\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7ad9\u6216\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6b62\u5883\u5730\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5eb7\u5fa9\u7684\u4eba\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u518d\u5ea6\u8b8a\u6210\u6613\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5979\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5426\u8a8d\u628a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u5957\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7ad9\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u9ede\u5b50\u9084\u883b\u9177\u7684\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u8ddf\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7ad9\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u90fd\u5f97\u9760\u4eba\u8207\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u63a5\u89f8\u624d\u80fd\u6563\u64ad\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7ad9\u7684\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u50cf\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4f86\u5f97\u5feb\u53bb\u5f97\u4e5f\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>--<\/p>\n<pre><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u8655\uff1a<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/news.sciencemag.org\/math\/2014\/01\/facebook-spreads%E2%80%94and-may-die-out%E2%80%94-disease\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Facebook Spreads\u2014and May Die Out\u2014Like a Disease<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/pre>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong><strong>\u8b6f\u8005\uff1a\u9ad8\u82f1\u54f2 \u79d1\u6559\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7279\u7d04\u5beb\u624b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e8b\u79d1\u666e\u6587\u7ae0\u7de8\u8b6f\u3002<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #333399;\"><strong><strong>\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1aKerina Huang<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u25a0\u6bcf\u7576\u4f60\u5728\u767e\u7121\u804a\u8cf4\uff0c\u63d0\u4e0d\u8d77\u52c1\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5348\u5f8c\u6642<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":16700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3293,87],"tags":[400,154,1128,588,555],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/sn-facebook_0.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16699"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16699"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29077,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16699\/revisions\/29077"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}