{"id":15430,"date":"2013-12-06T10:09:18","date_gmt":"2013-12-06T02:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=15430"},"modified":"2017-08-01T09:30:02","modified_gmt":"2017-08-01T01:30:02","slug":"%e3%80%90%e6%8e%a2%e7%b4%a2%e5%8d%81%e3%80%91%e9%86%ab%e5%ad%b8%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%b8%e5%81%b5%e6%8e%a2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/?p=15430","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u63a2\u7d22\u5341\u3011\u91ab\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5075\u63a2"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u7b2c\u516d\u8b1b\u2027\u7279\u7a3f<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>\u25a0\u00a0\u6578\u5b78\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\u7269\u7406\u548c\u5316\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u7269\u91ab\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u626e\u4e5f\u626e\u6f14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u800c\u907a\u50b3\u5b78\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u628a\u6578\u5b78\u5e36\u5165\u751f\u91ab\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b78\u554f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16707\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16707\" style=\"width: 297px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/P33-\u65b0\u914d\u5716.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16707 \" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/P33-\u65b0\u914d\u5716.jpg\" alt=\"The Patient Paradox \u66f8\u5c01\/Margaret McCartney\u8457\u3002 \" width=\"297\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/P33-\u65b0\u914d\u5716.jpg 297w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/P33-\u65b0\u914d\u5716-187x300.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 297px) 100vw, 297px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-16707\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Patient Paradox \u66f8\u5c01\/Margaret McCartney\u8457\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>\u64b0\u6587<\/strong><strong>\u2502<\/strong>\u674e\u9298\u6770<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u5341\u671f\u63a2\u7d22\u8b1b\u5ea7\u300c\u807d\u6578\u5b78\u8207\u751f\u547d\u5c0d\u8a71\u300d\uff0c\u5171\u6709\u516b\u5834\u7684\u5c08\u984c\u6f14\u8b1b\uff0c\u00ad\u300c\u91ab\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5075\u63a2\u300d\u662f\u7cfb\u5217\u6f14\u8b1b\u7684\u7b2c\u516d\u5834\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u662f\u6b64\u7cfb\u5217\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7684\u9867\u554f\u4e4b\u4e00\u694a\u5049\u52db\u6559\u6388\u8ac7\u5230\uff0c\u6578\u5b78\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\u7269\u7406\u548c\u5316\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u7269\u91ab\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u626e\u4e5f\u626e\u6f14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u800c\u907a\u50b3\u5b78\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u628a\u6578\u5b78\u5e36\u5165\u751f\u91ab\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b78\u554f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u694a\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u7d20\u8cea\u4e26\u4e0d\u8f38\u7d66\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\uff0c\u4f46\u81fa\u5927\u5f9e\u672a\u6709\u672c\u571f\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u8207\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6f14\u8b1b\u5167\u5bb9\u6709\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6f14\u8b1b\u8005\u9673\u79c0\u7199\u6559\u6388\u539f\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u7259\u91ab\u5e2b\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u5230\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\u653b\u8b80\u751f\u7269\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u5f9e\u6b64\u548c\u6578\u5b78\u7d50\u4e0b\u7de3\u5206\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u539f\u5148\u9810\u5b9a\u7684\u4e3b\u984c\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u9673\u6559\u6388\u7279\u5225\u5b89\u6392\u4e86\u528d\u6a4b\u5c0e\u89bd\uff0c\u5e36\u53f0\u4e0b\u89c0\u773e\u6b23\u8cde\u528d\u6a4b\u4e4b\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u904e\u53bb\u8f1d\u714c\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u4e00\u904a\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\uff0c\u6709\u5169\u500b\u5730\u5340\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u53bb\u53c3\u89c0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u5361\u6587\u8fea\u897f\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\uff08Cavendish Laboratory\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5247\u662f\u5206\u5b50\u751f\u7269\u5b78\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\uff08laboratory of Molecular Biology, LMB\uff09\u3002\u9019\u5169\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u64c1\u6709\u7121\u6578\u7684\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u3002\u9673\u6559\u6388\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u80fd\u7522\u51fa\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u7684\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee5\u76f8\u95dc\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08correlated events\uff09\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u3002\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u5f97\u4e3b\u6240\u5e36\u9818\u7684\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u78ba\u5be6\u4e5f\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u689d\u4ef6\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u3002\u689d\u4ef6\u6a5f\u7387\u5247\u548c\u4eca\u65e5\u7684\u6f14\u8b1b\u4e3b\u984c\u4e4b\u4e00\u8c9d\u6c0f\u6578\u5b78\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe<\/b><b><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u63a2\u8a0e\u6578\u5b78\u5728\u91ab\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9673\u6559\u6388\u5148\u5e36\u5927\u5bb6\u8a8d\u8b58\u6578\u5b78\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\uff08Simpson\u2019s paradox\uff09\u3002\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u68d2\u7403\u7403\u54e1Max\u5728\u5169\u5206\u6253\u9ede\u53ca\u4e09\u5206\u6253\u9ede\u7684\u6253\u64ca\u7387\u90fd\u6bd4John\u4f86\u5f97\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u9ad4\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u6253\u64ca\u7387\u537b\u6bd4John\u4f86\u5f97\u5dee\uff0c\u7403\u968a\u8001\u95c6\u82e5\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u6253\u64ca\u7387\u4f5c\u70ba\u85aa\u8cc7\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\uff0cJohn\u53cd\u800c\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u85aa\u8cc7\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c0dMax\u800c\u8a00\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e26\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u9673\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u662f\u51fa\u5728\u4e09\u5206\u6253\u9ede\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u5169\u5206\u6253\u9ede\u800c\u8a00\u96e3\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u64ca\u7387\u4e5f\u6703\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u800cMax\u6709\u8f03\u591a\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u6253\u9ede\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cMax\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u5e73\u5747\u6253\u64ca\u7387\u5c31\u88ab\u62c9\u4f4e\u4e86\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u7121\u6cd5\u7a81\u986fMax\u7684\u529f\u52de\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u4e5f\u7d93\u5e38\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u751f\u7269\u91ab\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u3002\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u624b\u8853\u5f62\u5f0f\u5206\u6210A\u548cB\u5169\u7a2e\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u54ea\u4e00\u7a2e\u624b\u8853\u767c\u751f\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u767c\u751f\u7387\u662f\u5426\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u904b\u4f5c\u5de5\u5177\u70ba\u76f8\u5c0d\u5371\u96aa\u6027\uff08relative risk, RR\uff09\u3002\u5206\u5225\u7b97\u51faA\u624b\u8853\u548cB\u624b\u8853\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u767c\u751f\u7387\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c07\u5169\u500b\u767c\u751f\u7387\u76f8\u9664\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u76f8\u5c0d\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u3002\u82e5\u662f\u4ee5B\u624b\u8853\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\u9ede\uff0cA\u624b\u8853\u611f\u67d3\u767c\u751f\u7387\u9664\u4ee5B\u624b\u8853\u611f\u67d3\u767c\u751f\u7387\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u7d50\u679c\u5927\u65bc1\uff0c\u8868\u793aA\u624b\u8853\u6709\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u6703\u767c\u751f\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0cA\u624b\u8853\u770b\u4f3c\u6709\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u767c\u751f\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u662f\u8003\u616e\u75c5\u60a3\u7684\u9ad4\u91cd\u5f8c\u6703\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7A\u624b\u8853\u7684\u75c5\u60a3\u80a5\u80d6\u8005\u8f03\u591a\u3002\u80a5\u80d6\u662f\u624b\u8853\u767c\u751f\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u5c07\u75c5\u60a3\u4ee5\u80a5\u80d6\u8207\u5426\u5148\u9032\u884c\u5206\u7d44\uff0c\u518d\u5404\u81ea\u6bd4\u8f03A\u624b\u8853\u6216\u662fB\u624b\u8853\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u5371\u96aa\u6027\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u767c\u73feA\u624b\u8853\u548cB\u624b\u8853\u7684\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u5176\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9673\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u5728\u505a\u91cd\u5927\u6c7a\u7b56\u4e4b\u524d\u6c92\u6709\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u4e26\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u5f0f\u5075\u6e2c\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe<\/b><b><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6578\u5b78\u8a08\u7b97\u4e2d\uff0c\u6578\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e38\u4ee52\u00d72\u5217\u806f\u8868\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u8b8a\u6578\uff08covariance\uff09\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u85c9\u75312\u00d72\u5217\u806f\u8868\u908a\u7de3\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u53ca\u5171\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8207\u6b63\u8ca0\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u4e09\u7a2e\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u70ba\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u8ca0\u76f8\u95dc\u4ee5\u53ca\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u9673\u6559\u6388\u7279\u5225\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u6b64\u985e\u7684\u904b\u7b97\u904e\u7a0b\u5fc5\u9808\u8a2d\u4e0b\u53c3\u8003\u7d44\uff0c\u7576\u53c3\u8003\u6a19\u6e96\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u6642\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u624d\u80fd\u4e92\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u5f0f\u5075\u6e2c\u67d0\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u6709\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\uff1f\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5148\u5c07\u75c5\u60a3\u5206\u6210\u6cbb\u7642\u7d44\uff08X=1\uff09\u6216\u662f\u672a\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7642\u7d44\uff08X=0\uff09\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7d44\uff08Y=1\uff09\u548c\u672a\u6210\u529f\u7d44\uff08Y=0\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7537\u6027\uff08Z=1\uff09\u53ca\u5973\u6027\uff08Z=0\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u6642\u82e5\u662f\u4e0d\u6cbb\u7642\u7d44\u6210\u529f\u7387\u8207\u6027\u5225\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7642\u6bd4\u7387\u4e4b\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u5225\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u6cbb\u7642\u6210\u529f\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u5176\u6578\u5b78\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5448\u73fe\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/01.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15464\" src=\"http:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/01.png\" alt=\"01\" width=\"509\" height=\"208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/01.png 1060w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/01-300x122.png 300w, https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/01-1024x418.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 509px) 100vw, 509px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u6c7a\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe<\/b><b><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e2d\uff0cX\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4Y\uff0c\u4f46Z\u6703\u5f71\u97ffX\u548cY\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u6d88\u9664Z\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u5f0f\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u89e3\u6c7a\u6b64\u985e\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u5206\u6d3e\u8a66\u9a57\uff08randomized clinical trial\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u5247\u662f\u4ee5\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08regression model\uff09\u4f86\u6821\u6b63\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u4e2d\u53c8\u7a31\u70ba\u5e72\u64fe\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u7dda\u6027\uff08linear\uff09\u6216\u662f\u908f\u8f2f\u65af\u8ff4\u6b78\uff08logistic regression\uff09\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u6392\u9664\u5e72\u64fe\u56e0\u5b50\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5047\u6027\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u708e\u6307\u6a19C-Reactive protein\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7528\u4f86\u5075\u6e2c\u51a0\u72c0\u52d5\u8108\u5fc3\u81df\u75c5\uff08coronary heart disease\uff09\u7684\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u53ea\u5c07\u6027\u5225\u3001\u5e74\u9f61\u7b49\u5e72\u64fe\u56e0\u5b50\u52a0\u5165\u908f\u8f2f\u65af\u8ff4\u6b78\u6642\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u767c\u708e\u6307\u6a19C-Reactive protein\u5075\u6e2c\u51a0\u72c0\u52d5\u8108\u5fc3\u81df\u75c5\u7684\u6548\u679c\u6975\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u7684\u5e72\u64fe\u56e0\u5b50\u8d8a\u591a\uff0cC-Reactive protein\u7684\u5075\u6e2c\u529b\u5c31\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5dee\u4e86\u3002\u82e5\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u6821\u6b63\u9019\u4e9b\u5e72\u64fe\u56e0\u5b50\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u5047\u6027\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u8aa4\u4ee5\u70baC-Reactive protein\u5075\u6e2c\u51a0\u72c0\u52d5\u8108\u5fc3\u81df\u75c5\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5f88\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u8207\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u4e4b\u8ff7\u601d<\/b><b><\/b><\/p>\n<p>90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\u7372\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9010\u6f38\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u5f8c\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u7814\u7a76\u55ae\u4f4d\u6578\u76ee\u8d8a\u591a\u6642\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c31\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u4e4b\u9069\u4f8b\u3002\u82e5\u5c07\u7814\u7a76\u55ae\u4f4d\u5206\u6210\u7406\u8ad6\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4ee5\u53ca\u61c9\u7528\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c\u4e26\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u55ae\u4f4d\u6578\u76ee\u548c\u5f97\u5230\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6642\uff0c\u4ecd\u820a\u662f\u5448\u73fe\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u53c8\u53ef\u7a31\u70ba\u751f\u614b\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff08ecological fallacy\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ee5\u7fa4\u9ad4\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u7d50\u679c\u4f86\u5c0d\u500b\u5225\u60c5\u6cc1\u9032\u884c\u63a8\u8ad6\u6642\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u4ee5\u500b\u5225\u8cc7\u6599\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u53bb\u63a8\u8ad6\u7fa4\u9ad4\u60c5\u6cc1\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u5c31\u7a31\u70ba\u539f\u5b50\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff08atomistic fallacy\uff09\u3002\u800c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5169\u7a2e\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7686\u6703\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u554f\u984c<\/b><b><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u5047\u8a2d\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u662f\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5c64\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6642\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\u548c\u8ca0\u76f8\u95dc\u5169\u7a2e\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u7a2e\u540c\u6642\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\u548c\u8ca0\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u53c8\u7a31\u4f5c\u4fee\u98fe\u4f5c\u7528\uff08effect modification\uff09\u3002\u6545\u8003\u616e\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u6ce8\u610f\u6709\u4fee\u98fe\u4f5c\u7528\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u6703\u7522\u751f\u5169\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u751f\u614b\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u5247\u662f\u539f\u5b50\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff0c\u800c\u8eab\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u77e5\u9053\u4f55\u8005\u624d\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff1f\u7c21\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u8981\u4ee5\u5206\u5c64\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u4f86\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u4ee5\u672a\u5206\u5c64\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u4f86\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\uff1f\u9673\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u5fc5\u9808\u6839\u64da\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u8b8a\u9805\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u70ba\u6027\u5225\u3001\u6cbb\u7642\u4ee5\u53ca\u6cbb\u7642\u5f8c\u662f\u5426\u6703\u597d\u8f49\u4e09\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u4e4b\u5f8c\u767c\u73fe\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u7d44\u5408\u5171\u6709\u516d\u7a2e\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u54ea\u4e00\u7a2e\u7d44\u5408\u624d\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff1f\u9673\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7db2\u8def\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u5c0b\u627e\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u7d44\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9673\u6559\u6388\u5718\u968a\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u4e00\u7a2e\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\uff08Partial Simpson\u2019s paradox\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u767c\u751f\u5e38\u5e38\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u6709\u5168\u7121\uff0c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u67d0\u7a2e\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9673\u6559\u6388\u4ee5\u570b\u5167\u7684\u81e8\u5e8a\u8cc7\u6599\u914d\u5408\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u5f0f\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u8c61\u78ba\u5be6\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u548c\u6642\u9593\u56e0\u5b50<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u4e5f\u548c\u6642\u9593\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u6821\u6b63\u6642\u9593\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u85c9\u904bCox model\u3002\u9673\u6559\u6388\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u524d\u885b\u751f\u7f72\u9577\u6d82\u9192\u54f2\u6559\u6388\u7684\u5c08\u9577\u662f\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6cd5\uff0c\u67d0\u65e5\u6d82\u6559\u6388\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e0a\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6cd5\u50c5\u5c0d20%\u7684\u611b\u6ecb\u75c5\u60a3\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u570b\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\u537b\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6cd5\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e80%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\uff0c\u8207\u81e8\u5e8a\u89c0\u5bdf\u5dee\u8ddd\u904e\u5927\u3002\u9673\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u7642\u6548\u8a55\u4f30\u9078\u64c7\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u6211\u570b\u5f9e1996\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u4f7f\u7528\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u75c5\u60a3\u7b49\u4e0d\u5230\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6cd5\u51fa\u73fe\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u75c5\u901d\uff0c\u6545\u80fd\u5920\u63a5\u53d7\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6cd5\u7684\u75c5\u60a3\u81f3\u5c11\u6d3b\u52301996\u5e74\u3002\u82e5\u662f\u9032\u884c\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\u7642\u6548\u8a55\u4f30\u6642\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5c07\u5148\u524d\u7684\u6642\u9593\u56e0\u7d20\u8003\u616e\u9032\u53bb\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u9ad8\u4f30\u7642\u6548\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\u4ee5\u6642\u9593\u76f8\u4f9d\u4e4bCox model\u9032\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>\u8c9d\u6c0f\u54f2\u5b78<\/b><b><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5f8c\u9762\u4e8b\u60c5\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u689d\u4ef6\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8c9d\u6c0f\u6578\u5b78\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u6240\u5728\u3002\u8c9d\u6c0f\u54f2\u5b78\u4e5f\u4e0d\u65b7\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5370\u8b49\uff0c\u56de\u5230\u9673\u6559\u6388\u5148\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u5730\u65b9\u6709\u591a\u4f4d\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u6642\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u9032\u4f86\u5c31\u8b80\u7684\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4e5f\u6703\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6307\u5c0e\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u90fd\u662f\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8996\u91ce\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u5f8c\u9673\u6559\u6388\u4ecd\u518d\u4e09\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u548c\u6578\u5b78\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4f46\u7121\u6cd5\u91d0\u6e05\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u914d\u5408\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5c08\u696d\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u8cc7\u6599\u624d\u80fd\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u800c\u7642\u6548\u8a55\u4f30\u7684\u90e8\u4efd\u8981\u8003\u616e\u9078\u64c7\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u6642\u9593\u76f8\u4f9d\u4e4b\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u5f0f\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u6c7a\u7b56\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\u81e8\u5e8a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u4e8b\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0d\u540c\u800c\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u8c9d\u6c0f\u6578\u5b78\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u89e3\u6c7a\u6b64\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u554f\u984c\u8207\u8a0e\u8ad6\u6642\uff0c\u9673\u6559\u6388\u548c\u694a\u6559\u6388\u7279\u5225\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u9019\u4e00\u4ee3\u80fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u80fd\u5920\u9054\u6210\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u52c9\u52f5\u5728\u5ea7\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u5b78\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>--<\/p>\n<pre><span style=\"color: #333333;\"> \u672c\u6587\u6574\u7406\u81ea\uff1a102\/11\/23\u4e0b\u5348\u7531\u9673\u79c0\u7199\u6559\u6388\u5728\u81fa\u5927\u61c9\u529b\u6240\u570b\u969b\u6f14\u8b1b\u5ef3\u6240\u4e3b\u8b1b\u4e4b\u300c\u91ab\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5075\u63a2\u300d\u7684\u6f14\u8b1b\u5167\u5bb9<\/span><\/pre>\n<pre><span style=\"color: #333333;\"> \u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a\u81fa\u5927\u79d1\u5b78\u6559\u80b2\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u63a2\u7d22\u57fa\u790e\u79d1\u5b78\u8b1b\u5ea72013\u5e7411\u670823\u65e5\u7b2c\u516d\u8b1b\u3008\u91ab\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5075\u63a2\u3009<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/case.ntu.edu.tw\/CASTUDIO\/course.php?speech_ID=3384#video_top\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u5168\u7a0b\u5f71\u97f3<\/span><\/a><\/pre>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #333399;\">\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1aVita Chen<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7b2c\u516d\u8b1b\u2027\u7279\u7a3f 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